Flight Safety Information July 26, 2011 - No. 150 In This Issue Global airline safety performance in the first half of 2011 Jet lands in Omaha after cockpit smoke reported Plane crash kills 20 in Morocco United employee accidentally shot by passenger at New Orleans airport Alaska volcano has airlines preparing for travel chaos Aviation program not yet ready to fly GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEYS Global airline safety performance in the first half of 2011 Global airline fatal accident figures for the first half of 2011 are remarkably consistent with those for the years of the preceding decade. There is no meaningful trend toward safety performance improvement or the opposite. This year to 30 June saw 11 fatal airline accidents compared with nine for the same period in 2010 (see graph). Six months provides only a snapshot of safety performance, so is not a statistically significant change, but the half-year comparisons over the whole decade do indeed tell a consistent story, which is confirmed by the full-year trend as well. Those who hope for continuous improvement continue to be disappointed. The number of fatalities dropped last year to 242, compared with 415 in 2010, which may sound good, but the lower figure is not a decade-best. If there are some indicators in this snapshot that are worth highlighting, they include the large proportion of Eastern-built aircraft among the fatal accident statistics this year so far: not only Antonovs, Tupolevs and Yakovlevs, but also Let L-410s and a Chinese Xian MA60. Indonesia continues to feature disproportionately frequently in global accident figures, as does Iran, Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Finally, it was not a good year for airlines in the CIS states. The two Congos are notorious for accidents involving ancient Antonov freighters. In the past, some of these had been used for United Nations charters. This year the UN chartered a Bombardier CRJ100ER for DR Congo operations hoping for better. But the aircraft, operated by Georgian Airways, crashed at Kinshasa Ndjili with 33 people on board, and only one passenger survived (see accident list). Indonesia knows it has a problem, and in early May it signed a memorandum of understanding with the Netherlands-based European Joint Aviation Authorities Training Organisation (JAA TO) to set up a major training centre to produce aviation safety- management skills for its own needs and those of other nations in the region. Ironically, this agreement was signed the day before the fatal crash involving Indonesian regional carrier Merpati Nusantara in which all 27 people on board died. Earlier in the year another domestic carrier, Sabang Merauke Raya, had lost a Casa Nurtanio NC212 freighter and its crew. The JAA TO described the aims: "The objective is to establish a framework within which the organisations will co-operate in delivering a curriculum for aviation professionals in Indonesia and other ASEAN countries, with competency-based courses conforming to JAA TO's worldwide quality standards. This will enable training and qualifying local trainers to become certified JAA TO instructors. The focus on a strong and long-lasting cooperation envisages the establishment of a solid training capacity able to meet the demands of the growing aviation industry in Asia." VIRTUAL RISK In February a Swearingen Metro III crashed at Cork, Ireland, killing six of the 12 people on board and raising questions that are more usual after an accident in the US on- demand charter market than one involving what is ostensibly a scheduled regional airline in Europe. Manx2, which marketed the flights and sold the tickets, was a "virtual" airline based in the Isle of Man, a UK offshore tax haven. The crash flight, a published scheduled service, was operated by Barcelona-based Flightline BCN, which provided the crew and leased the aircraft from Seville-based Airlada. According to the Irish Air Accident Investigation Unit, the captain was new to command, and the co-pilot new to the type, and the aircraft had no autopilot, autothrottle or flight director. The Manx2 flight arrival at Cork was affected by sea fog, a common local problem. The aircraft crashed on its third attempted approach, having descended well below its decision height on the ILS approach for runway 17, before starting what appears to have been a belated attempt to go around, according to the AAIU. The Unit's interim report says that 7s before impact a warning horn sounded, "believed to be the stall warning". The AAIU refers to a subsequent loss of control that led to a wingtip hitting the ground, after which the aircraft came to rest inverted beside the runway. The final report is awaited. In the accidents listed here, 10 are runway events. There are no runway incursions, but one runway-confusion event (misidentified runway), and nine runway excursions, most of them non-fatal but with serious damage incurred. The attempt by the Flight Safety Foundation, the International Air Transport Association and others to raise awareness of the high risk of runway accidents is not yet having a noticeable effect. They remain the most common of all airline accidents. ACCIDENT REPORTS RELEASED JANUARY-JUNE 2011 This is a summary of interim or final accident investigation reports published in the first six months of 2011, even if the event occurred before 1 January. ·On 4 November 2010, a Qantas Airbus A380 (VH-OQA) suffered an uncontained engine failure that caused extensive damage to the airframe. The crew returned to Singapore airport where the aircraft landed safely. The aircraft is still being repaired in Singapore. Qantas estimates it will return to service in September. The Australian Transport Safety Bureau's interim report says the intermediate pressure turbine disc in the No 2 engine had been weakened by an oil fire. As a result, the disc separated from its shaft, increased its rotation speed and broke into several parts. Sections of the fractured disc and other engine components penetrated the left wing and other areas on the aircraft, resulting in significant structural and systems damage. The oil fire was caused by a manufacturing defect in an oil feed pipe that resulted in fatigue cracking so oil sprayed into an engine cavity where it ignited. The ATSB says its ongoing study aims to look at manufacturing quality control, damage to the aircraft and its consequences, and the way the crew worked, to learn "valuable lessons" for the future. ·The General Civil Aviation Authority of the United Arab Emirates is studying a Sudanese Azza Air Transport Boeing 707-300 freighter that crashed just after take-off from Sharjah on 21 October 2009. The aircraft's recorders yielded nothing so investigators are relying on radar data, simulation and wreckage for evidence. At this point they say they believe the No 4 engine thrust reverser deployed in flight. ·The US National Transportation Safety Board says an Empire Airlines ATR42 twin turboprop crash at Lubbock, Texas on 27 January was the result of an aerodynamic stall following poor control of the airspeed by the crew during final approach. Both crew were injured. Contributory factors were poor crew resource management, crew fatigue, and light airframe icing. However, the Board notes the latter would not have been an issue if the speed had been managed well. The crew noticed early in the approach the flaps had not deployed as they should because of a fault, but they failed to make allowance for it. Finally, when stall warnings were delivered, the crew's response was slow and came too late to prevent a full stall. ·India has reported on the Air India Express Boeing 737-800 fatal runway overrun at Mangalore on 22 May 2010. It attributes the accident to the captain's sleep inertia and overbearing character. The report says the Serbian captain was deep asleep for 1h 40min on the flight from Dubai, and was woken shortly before descent to Mangalore, which he was to fly. The approach was high and fast, generating "sink rate" and "pull up" warnings from the terrain awareness warning system. The copilot called three times for a go-around but the captain ignored him. The aircraft touched down 1,600m beyond the threshold and overran the end, crashing down a steep slope. Only eight of the 166 people on board survived, none of them crew. ·The US Federal Aviation Administration Administrator Randolph Babbitt has said the ongoing investigation into the local fuselage skin failure in a Southwest Airlines Boeing 737-300 on 1 April (see accident list) is checking not only for fatigue but for manufacturing technique. http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2011/07/25/359889/global-airline-safety- performance-in-the-first-half-of.html Back to Top Jet lands in Omaha after cockpit smoke reported OMAHA, Neb. (AP) - A Delta jetliner has landed safely at Eppley Airfield in Omaha after smoke was reported in the cockpit. The plane landed shortly after 3:30 a.m. Tuesday. No injuries were reported among the 137 people on board. The jet was headed to New York City after taking off from Salt Lake City. The cause of the smoke report is being checked. A Delta representative didn't immediately return a call from The Associated Press. Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Jet-lands-in-Omaha-after-cockpit- smoke-reported-1594460.php#ixzz1TDLpejzm Back to Top Plane crash kills 20 in Morocco (CNN) -- Twenty people died Tuesday when a Moroccan C-130 military plane crashed in the southern part of the country, state-run Agence Maghreb Arabe Presse reported. The aircraft belonging to Morocco's Royal Armed Forces crashed in a mountainous area near the city of Guelmim, the report said, citing local sources. Local news agency Lakom.com, citing sources with knowledge of the event, said the plane was coming from the city of al-Oyoon with 70 people on board. Rescue efforts were ongoing. It is not clear whether civilians were on board, the news agency said. Ali Anozla, managing editor of Lakom, said that the local sources told him the cause of the crash was bad weather in the area. ************* Date: 26-JUL-2011 Time: Type: Lockheed C-130 Hercules Operator: Royal Moroccan Air Force Registration: C/n / msn: Fatalities: Fatalities: 20 / Occupants: Airplane damage: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: near Guelmim - Morocco Phase: Nature: Military Departure airport: Laayoune Destination airport: Narrative: Reportedly flew into the side of a mountain. Multiple (20-70) fatalities are feared. Sources: http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2011/07/26/97001-20110726FILWWW00328-maroc- un-avion-militaire-s-ecrase.php www.aviation-safety.net Back to Top United employee accidentally shot by passenger at New Orleans airport (AP) An United Airlines employee was accidentally shot when a hunting rifle discharged a round as it was being checked as baggage at a United ticket counter at Louis Armstrong New Orleans International airport. Sgt. Larry Dyess of the Jefferson Parish Sheriff's Office says it happened about 10:30 a.m. Monday as the firearm was in the process of being cleared as checked baggage. Dyess says the bullet struck a counter and a piece of it then hit the employee in the leg. The employee was transported to an area hospital for treatment of what Dyess described as a non-life threatening injury. Dyess says the passenger, 65-year-old Edward Deubler, of Harvey, La., was given a misdemeanor summons for negligent injury. Back to Top Alaska volcano has airlines preparing for travel chaos Using satellite imagery, scientists at the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) have determined that Alaska's Cleveland volcano may be ready to erupt and have issued a code yellow eruption advisory. Airlines that operate in the area are paying close attention because the Cleveland Volcano is located directly below the commercial airline flight path between Asia and North America. The significant problem here is that, due to the remoteness of the Cleveland Volcano, there is no on-the-ground ongoing monitoring of activity. The volcano could erupt without warning and satellite imagery might not detect the blast immediately creating a serious potential problem for aircraft flying over the area. "Short-lived explosions with ash clouds that could exceed 20,000 ft above sea level can occur without warning and may go undetected on satellite imagery for hours" the AVO said in a statement. That leaves experts preparing for the volcano's first big eruption in 10 years. A 2001 eruption brought lava flow including a hot avalanche that reached the sea and blasted volcanic ash more than five miles into the sky. Since then a series of minor eruptions have occurred with the most recent minor ash emission in September 2010. "Airlines operating through the region are aware that an eruption could happen suddenly and without further warning, and are preparing for potential travel chaos" reports christianpost.com. The 5,676 foot Cleveland Volcano, one of more than 90 in Alaska, is situated on the uninhabited island of Chuginadak in the Aleutian chain, 939 miles southwest of Anchorage and is one among many that lie in the Aleutian island chain. Nikolski, the town nearest to the Cleveland Volcano, is 45 miles away. Not up on the advisory scale for volcano's? Here's what it all means; Normal- Volcano is in typical background, non-eruptive state or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has ceased and volcano has returned to non-eruptive background state. Advisory- (where the Cleveland Volcano is right now) Volcano is exhibiting signs of elevated unrest above known background level or, after a change from a higher level, volcanic activity has decreased significantly but continues to be closely monitored for possible renewed increase. Watch- Volcano is exhibiting heightened or escalating unrest with increased potential of eruption, time-frame uncertain, OR eruption is underway but poses limited hazards. Warning- Hazardous eruption is imminent, underway, or suspected. http://www.gadling.com/2011/07/26/alaska-volcano-has-airlines-preparing-for-travel- chaos/ Back to Top Aviation program not yet ready to fly MANKATO - Minnesota State University and North Star Aviation announced plans Monday to ink a formal contract with Chinese officials on a program to train pilots in Mankato. During a news conference with a large delegation of Chinese government and aviation officials, all parties agreed to begin formalizing an agreement that would allow Chinese students to obtain pilot licensure through MSU's aviation program. That program contracts with North Star Aviation for flight time and instruction. The parties involved agreed on a timeline of 90 days to conclude the agreement; after an agreement is reached, a work group will iron out logistical issues. MSU President Richard Davenport said the news conference followed a series of meetings during the past few days. The meetings, he said, represent the next step in a process that began more than a year ago and could become MSU's, and Mankato's, signature international partnership. "This is one of the biggest ideas we've come up with," he said. The idea began when a series of earthquakes struck rural China, prompting government officials to declare a need for state-run emergency centers throughout the country. Each center would include about 20 helicopters with about two or three pilots per helicopter. China estimates it will need 12,000 pilots for the program. Yet, China's aviation infrastructure and work force are not equipped for the task. Changdong Xu - a Chinese businessman who serves as chairman of the Western Returned Scholars Association Entrepreneur Alliance and advises the Chinese government on collaborations with the United States - said there are fewer than 1,000 private aircraft in China and only a few hundred private airports. He said the partnership with MSU and North Star will be "an example for the future" of China's aviation industry and spoke in inspired terms about the importance of its success. "We need a lot of pilots," said Xu (pronounced "Shoo"). "We're helping to write the history of aviation in China." The broad outline of the deal is for the university to be paid a lump sum per trained pilot while providing food, transportation and other costs for the students in the training program. The negotiations are being led by Colorado-based CAIDA Inc., a consultancy firm led by Richard Lehmann. Costs for the consulting are being split between the city of Mankato, MSU and North Star. The first proposed timelines for the program had Chinese students beginning their training in Mankato by this fall. That timeline, however, has been revised because the scope of the program has changed. Originally, the program focused on Chinese students who would need only 12 months pilot training. But during the recent series of meetings, Chinese officials said they were interested in a program that would cater to a "broader audience," particularly high school students and two-year college students who could earn a four-year degree from MSU before earning their pilot license. Davenport said MSU could accommodate such a program, but extra time would be needed to secure housing and visas. Xu said he hopes to have the system established within "two to three years" and urged those in attendance to be patient. "We're starting from scratch in this industry," he said. "Everybody here are the pioneers." As for North Star Aviation, President Mark Smith said he's earned the certification required to train international students and is ready to begin the program whenever a deal is reached. "We stand ready at any moment to start the training," he said. http://mankatofreepress.com/latestnews/x1443104934/Aviation-program-not-yet- ready-to-fly Back to Top GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEYS 1) Hello, my name is Jonathan Fruge. I am working on my Master's Degree in Aeronautical Science with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Part of my degree program requires me to complete a research project on a topic related to the aerospace industry. I have chosen to do a study on the increase of airline fees. Anyone who travels by commercial aircraft is eligible to take the survey and your input is valid and important to my research. The survey should only take a few minutes to complete. Your help with my research would be greatly appreciated. The link for the survey is: http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/GLZMRFS. ************* 2) My name is Kevin Holley, I am working on a Masters Degree in Aviation Science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. The purpose of this survey is to gather information of fatigue in Air Traffic Control and amongst aircraft mechanics. The mechanics I am looking for in this survey are general mechanics, engine mechanics, Quality Assurance, NDI, Safety, Sheet metal / structure, Hydraulics, etc. The survey will only take a couple of minutes. All responses are considered confidential and information will only be used for its intended purpose. Completion and return of this survey indicate voluntary consent to participate in this study. Here is the link; http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/GM7F738 Question about this study can be directed to me at: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University PO Box 801 Randolph Air Force Base San Antonio, Texas 78148 Thank You for taking the time to assisting me in this research. Curt Lewis, P.E., CSP CURT LEWIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC