Flight Safety Information October 17, 2013 - No. 215 In This Issue Lao Airliner Crash Kills 49; Bad Weather Blamed Bodies Recovered In Mekong After Laos Plane Crash NTSB: Spirit jet had 'uncontained' engine failure Plane makes emergency landing at Oakland International Airport following a 'bird strike' Human Factors in Aviation Workshop at NBAA Think ARGUS PROS Business Jet Sales Still Haven't Recovered From Recession Airbus Said to Near $5 Billion Jet Order From VivaAerobus Lao Airliner Crash Kills 49; Bad Weather Blamed Lao authorities are blaming bad weather for the crash of a state-run airlines flight that killed all 49 people on board. The Lao Airlines ATR-72 turboprop plane was flying Wednesday from the capital, Vientiane, to the southern town of Pakse when it crashed into the Mekong River. The government has said it is likely there are no survivors, but it is dispatching rescuers to the scene, which is seven to eight kilometers from the Pakse airport. A passenger manifest showed 17 Lao, seven French, five Australians, five Thais, three Koreans, two Vietnamese, and one person each from the United States, Canada, China, Malaysia and Taiwan were on board. http://www.voanews.com/content/lao-airliner-crash-kills-44/1770771.html ************** Status: Preliminary Date: Wednesday 16 October 2013 Time: 16:10 Type: ATR-72 Operator: Lao Airlines Registration: RDPL-34233 C/n / msn: 1071 First flight: 2013-03-06 (7 months) Engines: 2 Pratt & Whitney Canada PW127M Crew: Fatalities: 5 / Occupants: 5 Passengers: Fatalities: 44 / Occupants: 44 Total: Fatalities: 49 / Occupants: 49 Airplane damage: Written off Airplane fate: Written off (damaged beyond repair) Location: 8 km (5 mls) from Pakse (Laos) Phase: Approach (APR) Nature: Domestic Scheduled Passenger Departure airport: Vientiane-Wattay Airport (VTE/VLVT), Laos Destination airport: Pakse Airport (PKZ/VLPS), Laos Flightnumber: 301 Narrative: A Lao Airlines ATR-72 was damaged beyond repair in an accindent near Pakse, Laos. According to a statement by Laos Airlines, all 44 passengers and five crew members were killed in the accident. Flight QV-301 originated in Vientiane, Laos at 14:45 and operated a domestic service to Pakse. Weather in the area was said to have been poor as a result of a passing typhoon. The airplane impacted the Mekong River while on approach to Pakse. The fuselage broke and sank in the river. www.aviation-safety.net Back to Top Bodies Recovered In Mekong After Laos Plane Crash PAKSE, Laos (AP) - Rescuers in fishing boats pulled bodies from the muddy Mekong River on Thursday as officials in Laos ruled out finding survivors from a plane that crashed in stormy weather, killing 49 people from 11 countries. Backpacks, two broken airplane propellers and passports were among the debris scattered on the riverbank where the Lao Airlines turboprop plane left deep skid marks in the ground before disappearing into the water Wednesday. "We have found nine bodies so far. At this point we don't know their nationalities," said Yakao Lopangkao, director-general of Lao's Department of Civil Aviation, who was at the crash site in Pakse in southern Laos. "We haven't found the plane yet. It is underwater. We're trying to use divers to locate it." He ruled out finding survivors. "There is no hope. The plane appears to have crashed very hard before entering the water." Some of the bodies were found by fishermen floating downstream as far as 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the crash site, he said. "We have asked villagers and people who live along the river to look for bodies and alert authorities when they see anything," he said. Fleets of small boats and inflatable rafts plied the muddy, vast waterway as part of the search, with men in life vests peering into the water. After storms Wednesday, the search took place under sunny blue skies. Thailand, which borders Laos, sent 30 scuba divers to help in the search for bodies, said Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman Sek Wannamethee. State-run Lao Airlines released an updated list of the 44 passengers' nationalities on Thursday. It said the flight included 16 Lao nationals, seven French, six Australians, five Thais, three Koreans, two Vietnamese and one person each from Canada, China, Malaysia, Taiwan and the United States. The area is off the main tourist circuit in Laos but known for its remote Buddhist temples, nature treks and waterfalls. Cambodian authorities said one of the plane's pilots was a 56-year-old Cambodian with more than 30 years' flying experience. Details of the crash remained murky. Lao Airlines said in a statement Wednesday that the plane took off from the capital, Vientiane, and "ran into extreme bad weather conditions" as it prepared to land at Pakse Airport. The crash occurred about 7 kilometers (4 miles) from the airport. The airline said it had yet to determine the cause of the crash of the ATR-72 aircraft, which had just been delivered in March. French-Italian aircraft manufacturer ATR said in a statement that "the circumstances of the accident are still being determined." It said that it will assist in the investigation which will be led by Lao authorities. It was the first fatal crash for Laos' state carrier since 2000, when two separate crashes left 23 people dead. The ATR-72 has been involved in 16 crashes since it went into service in 1988, according to databases kept by the Flight Safety Foundation and the Bureau of Aircraft Accidents Archives. The death toll from Wednesday's crash was the third highest on record involving an ATR-72; accidents in the U.S. in 1988 and Cuba in 2010 each killed 68 people. ATR had delivered 611 of the planes by the end of last year. Among the six Australians on board was a family of four. Relatives released a photo of the family, Gavin and Phoumalaysy Rhodes and their two children, a 3-year-old girl and a 17-month-old boy. The other two Australians were a father and son. They were identified as Michael Creighton, a 42-year-old aid worker based in Laos who had worked for the United Nations, and his father, Gordon Creighton, 71, a retired teacher who was visiting his son. "We have lost a father, a husband, a son, a brother, a fiance and a best mate in one tragic circumstance and we are trying to come to terms with our loss," the family said in a statement. Michael Creighton was living in Laos with his fiancee, who was not on the plane. Lao Airlines was founded in 1976 after the communist takeover of Laos, operating under the name Lao Aviation until a rebranding in 2003. It originally operated with Chinese- and Soviet-built aircraft, which were replaced in the mid-1990s as part of a major upgrade that included the purchase of ATR turboprops and in 2011 the delivery of two Airbus A320 aircraft. Back to Top NTSB: Spirit jet had 'uncontained' engine failure By: Joan Lowy (AP) An engine on an Atlanta-bound Spirit Airlines jet where passengers said they heard an explosion and saw flames sustained an especially serious type of failure, a National Transportation Safety Board official said Wednesday. The official told The Associated Press that it was an "uncontained" engine failure, meaning broken pieces and parts of the engine escaped the outer engine housing. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. The plane returned to Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport on Tuesday and landed safely. Passenger Fred Edwards told WGCL-TV in Atlanta that he heard an explosion before flames came up the side of the plane, lighting up the interior of the Airbus A319. He and other passengers reported that smoke then filled the cabin. Spirit spokeswoman Misty Pinson said no injuries were reported. She said the captain received an indication of a "possible mechanical issue" shortly after takeoff from the Dallas-Fort Worth airport. She said by email Wednesday that there was no fire, before adding later that Spirit is "actively investigating to confirm the specifics of what happened and the cause." The passengers were placed on another Spirit jet for Atlanta later Tuesday. Aircraft engines are designed to contain any broken pieces within the engine during a failure. That's because when parts are released, they often spray like shrapnel and cause severe damage to fuel lines, electrical cables, hydraulic lines and other critical aircraft systems. Airliners are capable of safely flying with only one engine if the other engine breaks down or has to be shut off, but damage from an uncontained engine failure can jeopardize the plane. Despite the government shutdown, NTSB is recalling furloughed investigators to open an investigation of the incident, the agency official said. Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman Laura Brown confirmed the agency is investigating the incident as well. Back to Top Plane makes emergency landing at Oakland International Airport following a 'bird strike' Alaska Airlines flight was en route from San Jose to Honolulu this morning The 157 passengers and 6 crew members landed without injuries and re-boarded a different flight an hour later (AP) An Alaska Airlines flight en route from San Jose to Honolulu today was forced to make an emergency landing in Oakland shortly after takeoff after the crew reported a possible bird strike. The flight landed without incident at Oakland International Airport around 9 a.m. Wednesday. No one was injured, officials said. Alaska Airlines spokeswoman Marianne Lindsey said the pilot reported feeling something ingested into an engine and landed as a precaution. The Alaska Airlines flight en route from San Jose to Honolulu was forced to make an emergency landing in Oakland. The plane likely hit a bird, but Lindsey said crews were still inspecting the plane in the afternoon and had not yet confirmed a bird strike. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2463596/Alaska-Airlines-plane-makes-emergency-landing-Oakland- International-Airport-following-bird-strike.html#ixzz2hxS9LA3P Back to Top Human Factors in Aviation Workshop at NBAA Richard Komarniski, President of Grey Owl Aviation Consultants, will be presenting October 20-21st its Phase I Human Factors in Aviation workshop for the 7th time at the NBAA in the past 16 years. Las Vegas, NV - Grey Owl Aviation Consultants Inc. is pleased to participate in this year's upcoming NBAA 2013 Convention which takes place October 22-24th. Richard Komarniski, President, will be presenting October 20-21st their Phase I Human Factors in Aviation workshop for the 7th time at the NBAA in the past 16 years. This workshop for owners, executives, flight crews, technicians and dispatchers meets PDP course objective HR 9 requirements, is FAA approved for IA renewal, and is nearly sold out. Grey Owl has successfully helped numerous organizations, large and small; implement their Safety Management Systems and Fatigue Risk Management programs. Grey Owl Aviation Consultants facilitated a sold out SMS Manual Writing workshop at Heli-Expo in 2013 and has plans for a repeat workshop February 24th, 2014 at Heli-Expo in Anaheim, CA. About Grey Owl Aviation Consultants Grey Owl Aviation Consultants has been a leading provider of Human Factors Training in the aviation industry for 20 years, facilitating nine distinct one-day human factors workshops. Their goal is to equip all aviation personnel with skills necessary to enhance safety, teamwork and efficiency in the workplace, and therefore reduce errors. Workshops are facilitated on-site at the customer facility. Grey Owl is an active member of industry associations such as NBAA, HAI and ALEA. For further information visit www.greyowl.com http://www.aviationpros.com/press_release/11192485/human-factors-in-aviation-workshop-at-nbaa Back to Top Back to Top Business Jet Sales Still Haven't Recovered From Recession Members of the 1 percent may be getting used to flying commercial. The business jet industry is in the midst of a "lost decade" that began with the 2008 financial crisis and shows no imminent signs of meaningful recovery, according to a report today from analysts at Citigroup (C). As industry leaders prepare to gather next week in Las Vegas for the annual National Business Aviation Association convention, they face dour predictions of a fourth-consecutive year with a disappointing outlook "as the broad-based recovery pushes out yet another year," wrote Jason Gursky and Stephen Trent. Business jets are nursing "a wicked hangover" from the boom in orders and deliveries that occurred from 2000 to 2008, when demand for small- and medium-sized planes grew 109 percent, compared to the 1990s. The market also took a strong hit from Occupy Wall Street and the widespread backlash to oversized bonuses received by finance and corporate executives. The deepest problem stems from too many planes: "Our analysis suggests that unit demand appears flattish through 2019 based on over-deliveries in the 2000s," wrote Gursky and Trent. The glut of used jets is slowly beginning to resolve, and companies shocked into penury by the recession have begun to ease back into the market, says NBAA President Ed Bolen. "An excess of capacity has led to reduced prices and a need for time to help with the absorption of that inventory," he says. "We're beginning to see the size of the inventory decreasing and prices begin to stabilize." The brightest part of the market is in large, ultra-long-haul jets such as Gulfstream's G650, which can fly eight people 7,000 nautical miles (that's nonstop from New York to Dubai), and Bombardier's (BBD/B:CN)Challenger 850. (Big spenders, forget about a new G650 for now-it's sold out until 2017.) The typical buyer for such bling-ish aircraft is your average Fortune 500 behemoth or entertainment mogul-Jay Z reportedly got a Challenger last year for Father's Day from his wife. "While these types of buyers have certainly been hurt by the economic downturn and its aftermath, their wealth and position mean that they are insulated from general economic and financial conditions to a much greater degree than are the types of customers that typically buy light and medium business jets," market research firm Forecast International wrote in a December 2010 report on the industry, which it described as "a tale of two markets" (PDF). "Buyers of smaller jets tend to be less wealthy individuals, small or mid-size companies, and fleet operators such as fractional providers, air taxi services, and charter outfits." That's the main reason Citigroup and others have been more bullish on stocks of the larger jet makers such as Gulfstream parent General Dynamics (GD) and Bombardier, which builds the Challenger and Learjet models. "I don't think it's been a lost decade; it's been challenging," Bolen says. "But sometimes pressure can create great things." http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-16/why-business-jet-sales-still-havent-recovered-from- recession Back to Top Airbus Said to Near $5 Billion Jet Order From VivaAerobus Airbus SAS is poised to win a $5 billion order as Aeroenlaces Nacionales SA, the Mexican airline known as VivaAerobus, expands and upgrades its fleet of aging Boeing Co. (BA) 737s, people familiar with the plan said. The deal is for 40 narrow-body A320neos with new engines and 12 of the current A320 models, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. VivaAerobus, Mexico's fourth-biggest carrier, may announce the transaction as soon as next week, the people said. A model of the A320neo aircraft at the Paris Air Show in Paris. Airbus plans to begin delivering A320neos starting in late 2015, getting a jump on Boeing's re-engined 737s due to enter service in 2017. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Displacing Boeing planes would be a boost for Toulouse, France-based Airbus, and the airline would see fuel efficiency rise with the A320-family aircraft over older 737s. While Grupo Aeromexico SAB (AEROMEX*), Mexico's largest airline, opted to buy Boeing models in 2012, closely held VivaAerobus is joining Interjet and Volaris in adding jets from Airbus. Airbus has "been very aggressive and they've been rewarded for that," said Richard Aboulafia, an analyst at Fairfax, Virginia-based consultant Teal Group. "They've been taking advantage of the disruption in the airline business there. When you don't have the No. 1, you go after the new entrants and that's been good for Airbus." The VivaAerobus purchase would be valued at about $5 billion based on Airbus's published list prices, on which airlines typically get a discount. October Meeting Stefan Schaffrath, a spokesman for Airbus, declined to comment about a VivaAerobus order, as did Alejandra Ochoa, a spokeswoman for the Monterrey, Mexico-based airline. The carrier has sent invitations for a meeting in Mexico City on Oct. 21 that includes an announcement, without disclosing details. Boeing doesn't comment on "speculation about customer orders," said Jim Proulx, a spokesman for the Chicago-based company. Airbus plans to begin delivering A320neos starting in late 2015, getting a jump on Boeing's re-engined 737s due to enter service in 2017. The people familiar with the discussions didn't provide details on any timetable for the VivaAerobus planes. VivaAerobus's fleet is 19 Boeing 737-300s, according to the airline's website. That version of the 737, the world's most widely flown airliner, had its final delivery in 1999, Boeing's website shows. "It's more economical to fly newer planes, so this will help VivaAerobus in terms of fuel consumption," Fernando Gomez, an independent aviation consultant in Mexico City, said in a telephone interview. "All their competitors are renovating or increasing their fleets." Ryanair Connection VivaAerobus was set up in 2006 by Ryanair Holdings Plc (RYA) founder Tony Ryan in partnership with a closely held Mexican bus company. The airline is working with Barclays Plc (BARC) to prepare for a possible initial public offering, three people with knowledge of the matter said earlier. Airbus parent European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (EAD) fell 0.5 percent yesterday to 48.32 euros in Paris, paring its year-to-date gain to 64 percent. Boeing has gained 60 percent in the same period, and closed at $120.34. Mexico's passenger traffic rose to a record in 2012 after expanding at the fastest pace since 2007. Carriers are jockeying to add planes as they try to fill the void created when Cia. Mexicana de Aviacion, formerly the country's largest carrier, sought protection from creditors and ceased operations in 2010. Aeromexico announced a 100-jet order from Boeing last year, and Interjet is taking Airbus aircraft as well as Superjet 100 regional jets from a joint venture between Moscow-based United Aircraft Corp.'s Sukhoi and a unit of Italy's Finmeccanica SpA. (FNC) Mexico has become "an increasingly competitive battleground" for Boeing and Airbus, Teal Group's Aboulafia said. "This market, both because of the growth rates and because of airline restructuring, makes it a pretty good bet." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/mexico-s-vivaaerobus-said-to-near-5-billion-airbus-order.html Curt Lewis