April 27, 2017 - No. 034 In This Issue Airbus Wrestles With Problem Planes as Profit Halves Nigerian Govt to Procure 20 Aircraft for Aviation College Federal Aviation Administration and Aireon Announce Space-Based ADS-B NextGen Technology Flight Test IATA urges stakeholders to reinforce aviation safety commitment Uber is really serious about flying cars, and Dallas could be first city to test them Google co-founder Sergey Brin is secretly building his own massive airship Wireless Sensors To Increase Aircraft System Monitoring Possibilities Labor, Technology Issues Could Hamper MRO Prosperity Forecasting Next-Gen Li-ion Application Fit in Electric Aviation Expanding Global Fleet Combined with Lack of Qualified Technicians Creating Labor Squeeze for Airline Industry Airbus Wrestles With Problem Planes as Profit Halves Airbus SE said three problem aircraft programs are set to remain a bugbear for the rest of the year after weighing on earnings in the first quarter. The planemaker is waiting on a fix for glitches afflicting engines on its new A320neo narrow-body jet, while production delays persist on the twin-aisle A350, Airbus said Thursday. And talks with European governments on stemming cost overruns on the A400M military transport are likely to stretch into 2018. Airbus earnings fell by more than 50 percent in the three months as deliveries of its newest civil models were held up, with the company's full-year guidance dependent on it achieving significantly higher build rates in the second half. Pratt & Whitney's proposed solution to the A320 engine issue looks promising but needs to be verified, it said. "Let's see whether the fixes coming through are finally confirmed," Chief Financial Officer Harald Wilhelm said on a conference call. "We still need to see the proof. Demonstrated performance so far is not satisfactory." Airbus shares fell as much as 2 percent after the Toulouse, France-based company said three-month earnings before interest and tax fell to 240 million euros ($262 million) from 498 million euros a year earlier. That fell short of the 326 million euros estimated by analysts. Deliveries of the A320neo have been slowed by the overheating of Pratt's new geared- turbofan engines, causing Airbus to prioritize production of an older, lower-margin variant. With the U.S. supplier saying Wednesday that regulators have backed a solution for a faulty carbon seal, Wilhelm said Airbus is taking that in good faith and targeting 200 deliveries in 2017, up from just 26 in the first half. More A320 "classics" could be built if need be, he said. Progress is being made in resolving supplier issues with the A350, which has suffered a shortage in interior fittings and seats from beleaguered Zodiac Aerospace, Airbus said, though Wilhelm cautioned that Zodiac still needs to improve both production rates and build quality. Only 13 A350s were delivered in the first quarter and with as many as 40 incomplete planes scattered around Toulouse, Airbus may face a late rush to fit them out in order to meet annual targets, as it did in 2016. The program should reach its goal of 10 deliveries a month by the end of 2018, it said. The A330, the company's biggest-selling wide-body, is meanwhile facing pricing pressures as customers hold out for a re-engined version due to enter service this year. Airbus Chief Executive Officer Tom Enders said he stands by a forecast for a mid-single- digit percentage gain in annual earnings, together with more than 700 commercial aircraft deliveries and free cash flow matching the 1.4 billion euros achieved in 2016 -- contingent on the anticipated boost in output. A400M Saga The value of new orders secured by Airbus in the first quarter slumped almost 50 percent from a year earlier, with the company announcing contracts for just six new planes net of cancellations. Wilhelm said he's not concerned about the figure and that the company's order backlog is solid. The A400M troop transport still faces potentially significant challenges in meeting contractual capabilities, cutting costs and securing sufficient export orders in time, Airbus said. Wilhelm predicted that negotiations over costs with government customers are likely to extend until the end of 2017 at least, especially with elections taking place in Germany, France and the U.K. The plane cost Airbus 2.2 billion euros last year to cover penalties for late deliveries and fresh issues with meeting promised performance specifications, taking the total hit to 7 billion euros over the past decade. Airbus shares traded 0.4 percent lower at 73.79 euros as of 9:39 a.m. in Paris, paring their gain this year to 17 percent and valuing the company at 57 billion euros. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-27/airbus-profit-halves-as- production-setbacks-weigh-on-margins Back to Top Nigerian Govt to Procure 20 Aircraft for Aviation College The Federal Government is to procure 20 aircraft to make Nigeria College of Aviation Technology (NCAT) Zaria a centre of excellence, Hadi Sirika, Minister of State for Aviation, has said. The News Agency of Nigeria reports that NCAT took delivery of a brand new Dimond DA24NG. The minister, who disclosed this at the launch of the new aircraft in Zaria on Monday, said that the new aircraft would improve the training capacity of the college. He observed that the current aircraft in use were highly expensive to maintain, adding that the college would now be more competitive and dynamic in the global aviation industry. Mr. Sirika lauded the efforts of the management of the college especially for introducing courses in line with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). "I am aware of efforts by NCAT to run National Diploma and Higher National Diploma, be rest assured, you will have our full support and that of the president." The minister charged staff of the college to seek for more knowledge in view of the fact that the world had changed from resource based economy to knowledge based. Earlier, the Rector of the college, Abdussalami Mohammed, said currently there were 29 trainer aircraft in the college. "These aircraft used for ab-initio training TB9, Trinidad TB20GT and Beech Baron 58 are old, the earliest being purchased 15 years ago and quite expensive to fuel and maintain," he said. The rector said the new trainer aircraft would significantly improve the flight training experience and reduce operating cost. He added that the newly acquired aircraft was equipped with glass cockpit and garmin 1000, which would make it easier for graduating pilots to transit to new generation commercial aircraft. http://allafrica.com/stories/201704241046.html Back to Top Federal Aviation Administration and Aireon Announce Space-Based ADS-B NextGen Technology Flight Test Success Aireon and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) today announced a successful flight test of space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) technology, collecting ADS-B data to be used as part of a larger validation effort exploring the new system's capability from low-earth orbit. The flight took place on Thursday, March 30, 2017, utilizing the FAA's specially equipped "flying laboratory" Bombardier jet with three AireonSM payloads available to receive data. A total of 2,462 ADS-B messages were received and decoded providing comparable data to that of terrestrial ADS-B stations. The flight test was highly choreographed and precisely located and timed within the Washington and New York Flight Information Regions (FIRs) to help provide validation of the capabilities of the Aireon system. Made possible by the FAA's NextGen program, the coordinated flight test involved trials of 125 watt top and bottom-mounted antennas on the FAA's "flying laboratory" jet known as N47. The aircraft is specially retrofitted with highly calibrated antennas, flight-data test equipment and recorders. Based out of the FAA William J. Hughes Technical Center in Atlantic City, New Jersey, the N47 aircraft helped begin the evaluation and verification of the performance of the Aireon system, particularly in high interference and high density environments. Aireon's space-based ADS-B global surveillance and aircraft tracking technology is largely a combination of FAA NextGen advancements, and the IridiumŪ NEXT satellite constellation, which hosts the Aireon ADS-B receivers. "A flight test coordinated with the FAA was the ultimate validation accomplishment for the Aireon system to date and is a textbook example of how a public-private partnership can thrive. It is nearly impossible to have a higher fidelity test without the experts at the FAA," says Vinny Capezzuto, chief technology officer and vice president of engineering at Aireon. "The NextGen team and the N47 flight crew are the industry all-stars when it comes to testing and validating technologies. Our ADS-B payloads are really an extension of the NextGen team's work to-date, ensuring air traffic controllers have the tools they need for the continued safety and efficiency of global travel." The FAA Tech Center is a pillar of NextGen infrastructure and home to some of the most important advancements in aviation industry history. Among the tests being conducted by the Tech Center team will be the comparative analysis of the Aireon space-based ADS- B data to that of existing ADS-B ground-station data. "The collaboration between Aireon, its service partner Harris, and the FAA is a testament to our goal of working with industry to continue pushing NextGen technology forward," says Andy Leone, surveillance and broadcast services, systems engineering lead/test director at the FAA. "The Aireon/Harris team has built a system that has huge potential for improving services for many around the world who lack some surveillance or advanced separation tools, and we are independently validating that their space-based ADS-B service meets FAA established performance requirements for broadcast surveillance. This test further exemplifies the FAA's and NextGen program's commitment to improving air traffic safety and efficiency for global aviation." Aireon's space-based ADS-B system will be operational in 2018, shortly after completion of the Iridium NEXT satellite constellation. The service will provide Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) with global air traffic surveillance and airlines with real-time flight tracking. The first ten Iridium NEXT satellites carrying the Aireon hosted-payloads were launched into low-Earth-orbit from Vandenberg Air Force Base on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, on January 14, 2017. Seven additional SpaceX launches are scheduled to take place over the next 12 to 15 months, including the second launch now targeted for June of 2017. In total, the operational constellation will consist of 66 satellites, with an additional nine serving as on-orbit spares. About Aireon LLC Aireon is deploying a global, space-based Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) system capable of surveilling and tracking ADS-B equipped aircraft around the globe in real-time. The system will be used to provide ADS-B coverage that will span oceanic, polar and remote regions, where current surveillance systems are limited to line- of-site and densely populated areas. Aireon will harness the best of aviation surveillance advancements already underway and extend them globally in order to significantly improve efficiency, expand safety, reduce emissions and provide cost savings to aviation stakeholders. In partnership with leading ANSPs from around the world, NAV CANADA, ENAV, the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) and Naviair, as well as Iridium Communications, Aireon is developing an operational, global, space-based air traffic surveillance system expected to be available by 2018. For more information about Aireon, visit: www.aireon.com. http://spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=50805 Back to Top IATA urges stakeholders to reinforce aviation safety commitment The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has requested aviation safety stakeholders to strengthen their commitment to a safety framework based on global standards, cooperation and dialogue, and effective use of data. IATA director general and CEO Alexandre de Juniac claimed that air accident investigation is a major area where greater cooperation on global standards is required. Juniac said: "Safety is the top priority for all involved in aviation-and aviation is the safest form of long-distance travel. "Last year there were over 40 million safe flights. That's an achievement that we can all be proud of. And it was made possible by a framework that incorporates respect for global standards, cooperation and the value of data." A recent study has revealed that of the approximately 1,000 accidents that occurred over the last decade, accident reports for only 300 of them were available and of those many had scope for improvement. Juniac added: "To learn from an accident, we need reports that are complete, accessible and timely. "We also need states to fully respect the standards and processes enshrined in global agreements for participation in the investigation by all specified parties." Aviation safety can also be improved with proper communication between regulators and industry in order to ensure that industry experience and know-how is suitably incorporated into new regulations and standards. The governments need to share adequate data, consult with industry, and support the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) as it frames a global aviation security plan. According to Juniac, more information is also required to enhance safety regarding the use of drones around airports and their potential hazard to aviation. http://www.airport-technology.com/news/newsiata-urges-stakeholders-to-reinforce- aviation-safety-commitment-5795392 Back to Top Uber is really serious about flying cars, and Dallas could be first city to test them Three years from now, Dallas could be testing out its own version of The Jetsons cartoon with flying taxis shuttling through the skies. At least that's the grand vision of Uber, the San Francisco ride-hailing company that unveiled an aggressive six-year goal for rolling out small aircraft that could be used on demand throughout the region. Uber announced Tuesday that Dallas-Fort Worth is the first location in the U.S. chosen for Uber Elevate, an effort to build a network of on-demand flying cars or VTOLs (vertical take off and landing) aircraft. Uber's chief product officer Jeff Holden said testing will begin in Dallas-Fort Worth by 2020. Flying cars are latest craze in Silicon Valley, with more than a dozen startups seeking to develop them. Holden said they are one more way Uber is pushing the envelope in transportation, citing its efforts to bring autonomous vehicles into its fleet. But some in the aviation industry are skeptical about the practicality or desirability of flying taxis. Perhaps most pressing would be safety issues that arise when more than a single one of these proposed aircraft take to the skies above a heavily populated urban area, said aviation consultant Robert Mann. "Why would you ever want to be up in an aerial vehicle with the same people you roll your eyes at when they drive by on the street?" Mann said. "It's bad enough when they drive, could you imagine having that much potential energy at your command over an urban area?" Uber said it will have the safety issues ironed out before it begins demonstrations of several aircraft in Dallas by 2020. And by about three years later, the company said it expects to have the new mode of transportation certified and available for Dallas residents. Why Dallas was picked Those involved with the project said there were many reasons Dallas was chosen for the trial. "Dallas has a fantastic history with aviation," said Mark Moore, a longtime NASA engineer hired by Uber as its engineering director for aviation. He rattled off the names of companies such as American Airlines, Southwest Airlines and Bell Helicopter, which all are based in the region. "It's a very aviation-friendly and forward-thinking city." Moore said Uber's first goal will be persuading the public by showing off electric flying vehicles with high safety, an appealing look and a low level of noise. Uber revealed its ambitious plan at a three-day conference in downtown Dallas, which began Tuesday. The conference drew about 400 aviation and technology professionals and government officials. The company also announced that it's working with five companies on the aircraft: Fort Worth-based Bell Helicopter, Kerrville-based Mooney International, Virginia-based Aurora Flight Sciences, Slovenia-based Pipistrel Aircraft and Sao Paulo-based Embraer. Dubai has also been chosen to test the flying vehicles. Uber plans to show them off at an expo there in 2020, Holden said. "The race is on," Holden said. "It's a sprint in Dallas and Dubai to get to scale. ...We're just going to see how fast we can run it, how fast we can get it to reality." Uber has been talking to city officials for months, as well as those with DFW International Airport, Fort Worth Alliance Airport and Dallas Love Field. On Twitter, people both cheered the announcement and poked fun at it. Some speculated the ride-hailing company used flashy news to distract the public from its woes on the ground. The announcement comes after months of bad publicity at Uber, including allegations of sexual harassment. Uber CEO Travis Kalanick, who is at the center of much of the controversy, was noticeably absent from the conference. Vertiports planned Uber said it envisions a future when people could turn hours-long, stop-and-go commutes between city centers and suburbs into a minutes-long flight. In a 97-page white paper, it imagines a fleet of small, electric aircraft that can take off and land vertically at so-called vertiports, which could be anything from helipads, unused land near highways or the tops of parking garages. They would have rapid charging stations and would range in size. Holden said that Uber is well-suited to kick off use of VTOLs because its business model allows for economies of scale that make the technology more affordable. He said the alternate mode of transportation could free up land for other city uses, like affordable houses and bike lanes -- something that he says ride-hailing is helping with, too. In Dallas-Fort Worth, real estate developer Hillwoodwill build vertiports for the flying vehicles. The company's chairman Ross Perot Jr. said the developer will focus on hubs of activity, such as Arlington's entertainment and sports district and American Airlines Center in downtown Dallas. He said Dallas is a great fit for the project because of its rapid growth and large population of pilots. Despite Uber's enthusiasm, aviation veteran Mann, the president of R.W. Mann & Co., said a certified, on-demand and off-the-shelf flying vehicle is still a "pipe dream at this point." "The flying car has been the public's fancy since about the 1920s," he said. "Nothing that's happened since then has really placed it any closer to being more than aspirational." In Uber's own white paper, it acknowledged large barriers. Among the hurdles: approval by the US Federal Aviation Administration and European Aviation Safety Agency; the need for lighter, longer-lasting electric batteries; air traffic control to handle higher density of aircraft; and the high cost of operations. And then there are regulatory issues, which alone could scuttle plans to be airborne by 2020. Mann said the FAA currently doesn't have design standards for hardware or software that would be used in these types of vehicles. Developing them would take years. Mann pointed to the challenges faced by the drone industry, which has been slowed down as the FAA adopts new rules and procedures. At Uber's conference Tuesday, Michael Thacker, an executive vice president for Fort Worth-based Bell Helicopter, said addressing safety concerns will be essential. "We have to ask ourselves 'Am I ready to get into this aircraft with my 10-year-old daughter. Is my neighbor?" In a statement, the FAA said it's taking a "flexible, risk-based approach to integrating innovative new technologies into the world's busiest, most complex, and safest aviation system." It said it's working on rules around automation in drones that could later apply to autonomous flying car designs. https://www.dallasnews.com/business/technology/2017/04/25/dallas-chosen-uber-first- us-city-test-flying-cars Back to Top Google co-founder Sergey Brin is secretly building his own massive airship After developing a widely popular search engine, both the Google co-founders are now looking to soar high in their respective aviation vehicles. While Larry Page has already backed a handful of flying car startups, Sergey Brin plans to travel in traditional fashion - using a zeppelin-like airship. Citing sources aware of the development, Bloomberg reports that Sergey is building his own massive airship in a NASA hangar - but it still is a secretive project that's being kept under wraps. Though the details of this aviation project are currently bleak, the publication mentions that the airship might just be a passion project. But you really never know, Brin could also be building a prototype to define the beginning of another new Alphabet venture. This project, which surfaced on the same day as Uber's significant VTOL Elevate project reveal, has been started due to Sergey Brin's fascination with airships. He developed a keen interest in these older aviation wonders after visiting NASA's Ames Research Center, where he would notice the photos of the USS Macon. This was one of the few airships developed and operated by the U.S Navy earlier in 1930's.What's more interesting is that the USS Macon was once housed in the Ames hangar, before it was caught in a storm and crashed off the coast of Big Sur back in 1935. Sergey Brin, the publication writes, is now developing the airship inside the same Ames facility that Alphabet leased from NASA to conduct its aviation experiments in 2015. Google's Planetary Ventures division was granted access to this massive hangar to use it as their lab and test area for new technologies. As for Sergey Brin's airship, the sources suggest that engineers are constantly working on this new project but the construction is not quite complete as of yet. They've already built a large metal frame (which will most likely be covered with carbon fiber and filled with helium gas) for his dream airship and it takes most of the space in the facility. This project is being spearheaded by Alan Weston, who was the former NASA program director overseeing the Ames program for the space agency. Weston most likely shares the Google co-founder's vision towards simplifying aviation by reviving the airship. He is positive that the use of this classic (and old) aviation technology would be cheaper and can enable cargo transportation over longer distances. He has gone on record to say that a helium-powered airship could easily haul 500 tons of cargo, while still being more fuel efficient than the semi-trucks we're currently operating. During a radio interview, Weston said, Further, there is no official word from either Google's parent company or the co-founder himself. But, there is no chalk out the high probability of this project actually turning out to be the Mountain View-based tech giant's new aviation venture - all because they're already involved in Project Loon and numerous other satellite projects. This will also be an interesting development as we can't wait to witness Google's innovation that they've poured into a classic airship. Google is already working on self- driving vehicles to cater to the masses on the ground, so building an aviation tech that can cater to the growing demand for freight across the globe could be a possibility. In the end, it could easily be Sergey Brin's fascination of riding one of these large flying ships privately, that he is spending millions of bucks on it. On the other hand, his partner in crime, Larry Page is marching forward to invest his billions of dollars into next-generation travel ventures. He is planning to provide everyone access to aviation technology similar to the widely popular cartoon series, the Jetsons, where the cars could fly about in the air. One of the startups he backed, Kitty Hawk, recently publishedtheir first commercial video and is now accepting $100 membership requests. https://thetechportal.com/2017/04/26/google-sergey-brin-secret-airship/ Back to Top Wireless Sensors To Increase Aircraft System Monitoring Possibilities The ever-growing power of data processing is converging with another, less well-known trend to improve reliability and make predictive maintenance a reality: the increasing use of sensors, which are becoming cheaper or much smarter for the same cost. With a greater number of sensors or more intensive use of them, operators and manufacturers are better monitoring and understanding the behavior of many aircraft systems. Now the advent of wireless sensors is creating a new range of possibilities. A combined enhancement in sensing and software solutions for the permanent assessment of systems is on the way to make aircraft more intelligent-and maintenance department managers will see it first-hand. "We are seeing an increased volume of new sensors available and more applications, which is starting to bring prices down," says Bjorn Stickling, manager of diagnostics, prognostics and health management at Pratt & Whitney Canada. Meanwhile, the materials and components that enable modern sensors continue to drop in price, notes Thomas Wiegele, senior fellow in intelligent systems at UTC Aerospace Systems (UTAS). Taking a life-cycle perspective, sensor costs include not only acquisition but also installation and maintenance. Reliability improvements on sensors are significantly reducing these costs, notes Johann Bordais, Embraer's vice president for services and support. But tempering the overall impression of progress toward lower sensor costs is Fabien Darsonval, ATR's head of propulsion systems, who says he does not yet see any indication that sensors are becoming less expensive. Still, what most users perceive as a tendency toward cheaper components is not so straightforward. "Sensors are becoming more intelligent through added software, computation and connectivity functionality; this functionality is providing great value to intelligent aircraft systems, but not without a cost," says UTAS's Wiegele. In other words, manufacturers can expect either a lower price or better value for their money. Nevertheless, "price is still a challenge on smaller aircraft," Stickling says. Conventional wired sensors have been used mainly for control and fault monitoring; now they are increasingly being adopted for use on other systems, such as integrated health management. For example, Embraer is developing a scheduled structural health monitoring (S-SHM) solution. "It can replace complex and time-consuming inspections with simple and fast automatic evaluations of structural condition," says Bordais. "Our S- SHM solution is already flying with one of our E-Jets customers." ATR and Meggitt Sensing Systems are developing a propeller-balance trending system. Vibration is monitored continuously, as is already the case for engines. Instead of having to arrange regular ground testing or putting maintenance personnel on revenue flights, the operator can receive much more frequent, automated reports. The bottom line is improved reliability, as an unbalanced propeller has an impact on engine accessories, ATR's Darsonval says. Maintenance costs are therefore predicted to decrease. Among the factors enabling the design of such systems is the recent improvement of data-acquisition units, which are now more compact. ATR hopes to offer a retrofittable option. Pratt & Whitney Canada is developing a similar system. "We expect to go into production in June on ATR aircraft, and we have just installed the first system on the Bombardier Q400," Stickling says. "It will allow airlines to put propeller-balancing maintenance activities into 'on-condition' mode, for a truly optimized environment." The next step for sensors is wireless communications, which is certain to be a far- reaching technology. For two years, ATR has been using wireless sensors for flight-testing purposes. Engine data are concentrated at the nacelle level and then sent to a central system. The experience gained in flight testing could be used to extend the capability to certified aircraft. "We expect non-safety-related systems to be the first adopters of wireless," says UTAS's Wiegele, citing examples such as climate control. Next in line may be "smoke detectors, emergency lighting, cabin-pressure sensing, engine sensing and eventually flight-control actuation systems." Wireless sensors currently certified for civil aviation offer higher memory capacity, improved wireless offload capability and longer battery life. As a result, they can record a greater volume of high-quality data in terms of sensitivity and frequency, Stickling says. Embraer's Bordais is more circumspect. "We expect improvements on sensor resilience to interference such that new implementation possibilities are created," he says. The World Radiocommunication Conference in 2015 agreed on spectrum for wireless avionics intra- communications (WAIC). Standardization bodies RTCA and Eurocae are targeting the first half of 2019 to issue minimum operational performance standards for WAIC. The potential benefits of wireless sensors are immense. The first is design weight. On a large aircraft, with 11,000-13,000 lb. of wiring, they could mean a weight reduction of up to 3,300-4,000 lb., Wiegele suggests. For maintenance, oil condition monitoring could enable the detection of precursors of problems, such as metal chips. Wireless technologies can provide sensing access to hard- to-reach locations on the aircraft, which could include rotating elements. Temporary installation also becomes possible."Maintenance functions become more precise and timely, engineering models and designs benefit from more knowledge about product performance, and higher-level analytics are enabled by the additional sources of information," says Wiegele. This could improve testing procedures and provide new prognostics and health-monitoring capabilities, concurs Embraer's Bordais. Wireless technology allows operators to connect and certify a sensor separately from the engine-certification process. That is helpful, as it is typically expensive to certify a wired sensor in a new engine configuration. With the ability to more easily introduce sensors, engineers can optimize where, when and how data are recorded. Since new-generation sensors have their own storage capability, data can now be downloaded when and where it is really needed, via a smartphone or tablet. Pratt & Whitney Canada is exploring new sensor technologies to monitor a range of parameters -from vibration data to temperature and pressure data-on the engine and the nacelle as well as the oil system. Since wireless sensors used for maintenance purposes are not part of the core engine bill of materials, sensor reliability does not affect dispatch reliability or availability of the engine. As a result, it is easier to make the case to add more sensors. "There is still a large amount of untapped information in the engine control systems that we, as manufacturers, are well-positioned to leverage for analytics," says Stickling, who sees the potential to greatly enhance the amount of data available for analysis. This will enable improved proactive, preventive and on-condition maintenance. But with the significant increase in the number of sensors and data transmitted and stored on aircraft, new challenges arise. The hardware perspective should not supersede the software perspective-the need for pattern recognition in massive amounts of data and greater parallel computing requirements, Bordais points out. ATR is concerned that data ownership and utilization could be disputed between the operator and the service provider, which could be the engine maker. From Identification To Sensing Radio-frequency identification (RFID) of parts is already helping to improve logistics. As repeated labeling of part numbers by hand is eliminated, "no error can be pushed into the maintenance system," says Trevor Stone, Airbus's head of value chain visibility and mobile solutions. In a cabin, using RFID to check the expiration date of life-vest containers takes a matter of minutes, instead of hours with conventional methods. Airbus refers to this process as Auto-ID, combining UHF communications and a barcode. What if Auto-ID-enabled items could connect wirelessly to the aircraft automatically? Such a sensing infrastructure might first become a reality in the cabin. For example, it could help the crew ensure overhead bins are locked and everything is in the right place before takeoff. In the future, the technology could also help capture humidity or temperature data, among other parameters. Harvesting Energy Going wireless also implies that electric power can no longer be brought to the sensor from elsewhere. Various means of developing self-powering sensors are being tested, but few details are available. Energy could be "harvested" locally from vibration, thermal gradient, sunlight or airframe stress. http://www.mro-network.com/technology/ Back to Top Labor, Technology Issues Could Hamper MRO Prosperity Skills shortages and outdated technologies are among the primary concerns for the commercial aviation aftermarket during an era of fleet expansion and modernization, according to Oliver Wyman's 2017 MRO survey. The survey draws on the views of nearly 100 respondents from the MRO industry, with 63% VP level or more senior and 85% director or above, and highlights the concerns of maintenance companies. According to Oliver Wyman's annual Fleet and MRO Forecast, also published this week, global carriers are anticipated to add 20,444 aircraft, 17,390 of which are considered as encompassing new technology while an estimated 10,311 mature jets are expected to be retired. This will be driven by emerging aviation powers such as China and India. The MRO market is also set to hit new heights over the next decade, with both the Oliver Wyman and ICF International forecasts expecting it to surpass the $100 billion mark over the next decade. While the figures portray a growth industry, two of the key components of the future - people and technologies - are causing concern among industry players. In the U.S., among the world's most mature MRO countries, the labor issue appears especially critical. With an average technician workforce age of around 51 years old, some nine years more than the U.S. national average, a more mature demographic has long been a reality. However, the labour problem is predicted to reach an impasse in the next 5-7 years, number of maintenance retiring technicians equalling the numbers of new younger talent entering the industry. At the top of the decade, retirees will outpace the total of younger mechanics. By 2027, it is predicted around 91,000 technicians will be needed in the U.S., but supply will be at 83,000. Competing with other sectors such as automotive and oil & gas, the reality is that it is becoming increasingly difficult for aviation companies to attract new talent, Oliver Wyman principal Brian Prentice told MRO Network. 78% of this year's survey respondents said it is becoming tougher to do just that, and the squeeze in the labor market is pushing them to rely on other stop-gap solutions such as overtime. One way this could be resolved to an extent is by rising wages to attract new talent, Oliver Wyman/CAVOK's Dave Marcontell said at MRO Americas on April 25. However, the result of this shortfall could be a harmful knowledge gap. In 2027, it is predicted that the ratio of older and newer generation aircraft in the global fleets will be close to 50-50. MROs also aren't anticipating this to become any easier. 72% of those surveyed expect the search for qualified candidates to get much harder in the coming decade. Equally as pressing is technology centered on both the fleet and the IT infrastructures of MROs. Many IT infrastructures (62%) are still having a pejorative impact on aftermarket businesses. The nirvana of new technological innovations driving efficiencies and cost reductions also appears some way off. Just 20% of those surveyed said new technologies and data analytics are having a material impact on business. The combined skills-technology conundrum could have a long-term result in increased maintenance costs and turnaround times on scheduled work. This scenario, according to Oliver Wyman, could result in airlines choosing to retain more spare aircraft as a backup for potential servicing delays. But with technologies evolving, an interesting perspective was presented in the way in which demands for the next-generation airline technician will change. These include composite material repair and manufacture (62%); collection and reporting of data for advanced analytics, big data, and predictive maintenance (51%); and having competencies in the newest avionics and electrical systems (51%). While technologically challenged, it appears the industry is prepared to meet this head on in the near future with upgrades planned over the next three years. 68% of respondents are planning a migration or major upgrade in their systems for engineering in the next three years, followed by supply chain (55%), and engine maintenance, technical support, and planning (50%). http://www.mro-network.com/maintenance-repair-overhaul/ Back to Top Forecasting Next-Gen Li-ion Application Fit in Electric Aviation: Finding Space in Aerospace for New Battery Chemistries The fossil fuels that enabled the jet age due to their considerable energy density may soon be yielding to electric aircraft for the same reason. Thanks to the increasing energy density of new battery chemistries, electric aerospace has received considerable attention as the future of flight. Today, most consumer and commercial drones are electric for weight and simplicity (see the report "UAV Landscape and Market Size: The Impact of Technology and Regulation on Commercial Applications" [client registration required]), and startups like Zee Aero and upstarts like Uber and Airbus' corporate incubator A^3 have all announced they would be pursuing electric aircraft for transportation. Electric aircraft seem like a perfect fit for new energy-dense battery technology, with the aerospace industry being less sensitive to cost and cycle life considerations than the automotive sector, where these factors are key inputs to vehicle cost. However, a closer look at cell-level requirements for different aerospace platforms shows that it may not be plane sailing after all. Generally there are two different types of flying vehicles: rotorcraft like helicopters and quadcopters, and fixed-wing aircraft like traditional planes. Two different mathematical models to cover the two platforms were assembled, informed largely by David MacKay's Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air and disk loading calculations for rotorcraft. When different types of aerial vehicle were modeled, all vehicles resulted in limited range compared to fossil fueled-equivalent aircraft and peak discharge C rates greater than 2.5 due to the power requirements of flight. These requirements stress energy-dense technologies like solid-state electrolytes and lithium metal anodes, which are not optimized for power. Three different electric aircraft were modeled. The vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) flying car concept outlined in Uber's Elevate project, which describes a 6-8 rotor 4-person air taxi, could have a maximum range of 70 miles with leading-class 350 Wh/kg batteries, making it suitable for long commutes, but the energy-optimized cells would see discharge rates up to 4.5 C during takeoff and landing. Others like Airbus and NASA have approached electric flight with a more traditional fixed-wing architecture, but here too high power is necessary for takeoff, though less so than rotorcraft. A similarly-sized airplane would result in an improved 270 miles of range using 350 Wh/kg cells, appropriate for intraregional transportation, however the battery pack would still experience discharge rate up to 3.5 C during takeoff. Even a traditional lightweight consumer quadcopter would experience 2.5 C sustained discharge rates and an operating time of 25 minutes with 350 Wh/kg cells, just from the power required to hover in place. Despite the aerospace industry's desperate need for energy-dense batteries to enable electric aircraft, the competing power requirements of flight make it difficult to achieve both high energy and high power in the same chemistry. Electric aircraft designers will have to trade performance elements like noise, vehicle footprint, and runway length with battery limitations to find the right intersection of high energy density/low power requirements that can fully leverage next-generation cell chemistries. It's tempting to think that all you need to enable the future of electric flight is more energy-dense batteries like the ones being announced by SolidEnergy Systems (see the October 12, 2016 LRESJ) and Sion Power (see the December 9, 2015 LRESJ [client registration required for both]), but in fact the harder requirement to satisfy will be power density. It may be possible to drive these battery technologies harder at the expense of efficiency and cycle life, but these chemistries are already cycle life limited, so it's unlikely developers will want to sacrifice still more longevity. Hybrid architectures with two different technologies may compromise both range and power, rather than meeting demands of either. Readers in the aerospace industry should be mindful of the current limitations of energy dense chemistries and scale back their near-term ambitions to use more powerful, but less energy-dense batteries. It's entirely possible that required power density of next-generation batteries will never meet the demanding specifications, so design tricks like lower disk and wing loading may need to be adopted at the expense of vehicle footprint and range. Electric aerospace can offer imaginative solutions to transportation, but those ideas will remain grounded if battery technology and aircraft demands don't fly in formation. http://blog.luxresearchinc.com/blog/2017/04/ Back to Top Expanding Global Fleet Combined with Lack of Qualified Technicians Creating Labor Squeeze for Airline Industry Executives from the maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry are worried about an anticipated shortfall in the number of adequately trained mechanics at a time when the global airline fleet is expanding and modernizing, according to Oliver Wyman's 2017 MRO survey titled When Growth Outpaces Capacity. "It is a double whammy. Over the next decade a record number of maintenance technicians will retire, outpacing the total number of new mechanics entering the market," said Brian Prentice, partner with Oliver Wyman. "At the same time, the global fleet is growing significantly. Additionally, the shortfall is expected to create expertise gaps as the industry finds itself having to service a fleet that will be almost equally divided between older and newer technology aircraft. This is one situation in the US, where the jobs are available, but the people are not." According to the survey, 78 percent say it is getting harder to hire mechanics and the tightening labor market is pushing them to rely on overtime and other stop-gap efforts to keep up with market demand. The aging of the mechanic workforce and anticipated retirements could not come at a worse time for the industry, as it gears up to accommodate the larger fleet. The median age of aviation mechanics in the United States is 51 years old, nine years higher than the median age for the broader US workforce according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. At the same time, relatively few millennials are looking to train as aviation mechanics. When asked why it was difficult to recruit, 51 percent of survey respondents identified wages and benefits as an obstacle. Additional survey findings include: * The world's major airlines are slated to add 20,444 planes, of which 17,390 are new technology aircraft, and retire 10,311 older planes. By 2027, 58 percent of the global fleet will be newer generation aircraft. * Mechanics will need the skill sets to work not only on the newest planes, but also on those that have been flying for 20 years. * Roughly 30 percent of mechanics who train for the airline industry find careers in other industries, due to better pay, improved working hours, and other attractive job incentives. * Technology offers some hope to ease the impact of the labor shortage through productivity enhancements and operational improvements; if IT spending is adequately prioritized. * With a shortage of skilled technical labor, airlines will likely protect their daily operations by drawing existing skilled workers into their line maintenance programs to the detriment of third-party maintenance providers. * In the near term, airlines will continue to focus on operational reliability, at the possible expense of turnaround times for scheduled maintenance and components. * An increase in out-of-service time will potentially require a shift in asset management strategies. The industry may give back some of the efficiency gains made and hold more spares. "The industry is facing a variety of challenges and some can be remedied by a combination of improved efficiencies driven by new technology solutions and increased wages to attract new talent," added Prentice. "However, this may take up to a decade to achieve, leaving the industry at a crossroads in the meantime." About the MRO Survey In its second decade, Oliver Wyman surveys a range of executives from across the aviation industry cross key trends and emerging issues in the MRO sector. Sixty-three percent of this year's respondents to the annual survey were senior executives - either in C-suite posts or vice president or above, and 85 percent were director level or above. More than half (55%) were located in North America. About Oliver Wyman Oliver Wyman is a global leader in management consulting. With offices in 50+ cities across nearly 30 countries, Oliver Wyman combines deep industry knowledge with specialized expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation. The firm has about 4,500 professionals around the world who help clients optimize their business, improve their operations and risk profile, and accelerate their organizational performance to seize the most attractive opportunities. Oliver Wyman is a wholly owned subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies (MMC). For more information, visit www.oliverwyman.com. Follow Oliver Wyman on Twitter @OliverWyman. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/expanding-global-fleet-combined-lack-133400560.html Curt Lewis