Flight Safety Information July 7, 2020 - No. 136 In This Issue Incident: Delta A319 at New York on Jul 6th 2020, hail strike Incident: Binter Canarias AT72 at Funchal on Jul 2nd 2020, burning odour and black smoke in cabin Incident: Gol B738 at Natal on Jul 1st 2020, engine flamed out, restart unsuccessful Incident: Ruili B738 near Chongqing on Jul 6th 2020, cracked windshield NTSB determines helicopter likely struck drone NTSB: FAA must act on safety recommendations WHO cautions safety as Africa resume air travel The Coming Apocalypse for U.S. Airline Labor El Al Israel Airlines Agrees to Government Assistance Born in Denver, the first female US airline pilot and captain has died at 80 Pilots Were Once in Short Supply. Now They're Losing Their Jobs ASTM Approves New Sustainable Jet Fuel Process Japan Airlines Retires First Long-Range Jet During Covid-19 Travel Downturn Online Unmanned Aircraft Systems from SCSI AVIATION SAFETY SURVEY GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY Incident: Delta A319 at New York on Jul 6th 2020, hail strike Delta Airlines Airbus A319-100, registration N342NB performing flight DL-1076 from West Palm Beach,FL to New York La Guardia,NY (USA), was on approach to New York's La Guardia Airport descending through about 3000 feet MSL when the aircraft flew through hail. The crew decided to divert to New York's JFK Airport, where the aircraft landed safely on JFK's runway 22R about 10 minutes later. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d9a5e87&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: Binter Canarias AT72 at Funchal on Jul 2nd 2020, burning odour and black smoke in cabin Binter Canarias Avions de Transport Regional ATR-72-212A, registration EC-KGJ performing flight NT-932 from Funchal to Porto Santo (Portugal), was in the initial climb out of Funchal when a burning odour developed in the cabin and thick black smoke began to emerge. The aircraft stopped the climb at about 700 feet and returned to Funchal for a safe landing about 5 minutes after departure. A Condor Airbus A320-200 registration D-AICD performing flight DE-1570 from Frankfurt/Main (Germany) to Funchal was on final approach to runway 23 descending through about 900 feet AGL when the crew was instructed to go around to give way to incoming emergency. The A320 positioned for another approach and landed safely about 12 minutes after the Binter ATR. The ATR remained on the ground for about 6 hours, then departed again and reached Porto Santo with a delay of about 7 hours. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d99eca2&opt=0 Back to Top Back to Top Incident: Gol B738 at Natal on Jul 1st 2020, engine flamed out, restart unsuccessful Gol Transportes Aereos Boeing 737-800, registration PR-GUC performing flight G3-2220 from Rio de Janeiro Galeao,RJ to Natal,RN (Brazil) with 120 passengers and 6 crew, was descending towards Natal when the left hand engine (CFM56) flamed out associated with an EICAS message "ENG FAIL". The crew attempted to restart the engine without success. The aircraft continued for a safe landing in Natal on single engine. Brazil's CENIPA rated the occurrence an incident and did not open an investigation. The aircraft returned to service about 52 hours after landing. http://avherald.com/h?article=4d99e8dd&opt=0 Back to Top Incident: Ruili B738 near Chongqing on Jul 6th 2020, cracked windshield Ruili Airlines Boeing 737-800, registration B-7866 performing flight DR-6558 from Xianyang to Kunming (China), was climbing through 9500 meters out of Xianyang when the crew initiated an emergency descent reporting a heating failure of the left hand windshield followed by a flashover. The aircraft diverted to Chongqing (China), entered a hold to burn off fuel and landed safely in Chongqing about 45 minutes after stopping the climb (at about 15:33Z). http://avherald.com/h?article=4d99e49c&opt=0 Back to Top NTSB determines helicopter likely struck drone December 2019 incident not the first Forensic analysis and crew reports led the NTSB to determine that a December 2019 incident that forced a news helicopter to make a precautionary landing in Los Angeles had most likely collided with a drone, which would bring to six the number of highly probable or confirmed drone strikes in U.S. airspace. Research has demonstrated that small unmanned aircraft are very difficult to spot from a cockpit. None of the suspected or confirmed incidents involving drones striking other aircraft that have been investigated by the NTSB to date have resulted in injuries or substantial damage to the manned aircraft involved, the board noted in a report published June 29 detailing its investigation of a drone strike reported by a news helicopter crew flying over Los Angeles on December 4, 2019. The reported collision happened in Class G airspace, and it was not clear whether the unmanned aircraft system had violated regulations including the 400-foot altitude limit imposed on commercial and recreational drone operations. The NTSB noted that the helicopter was at 1,100 feet agl at the time of the impact, but was close enough to downtown Los Angeles that nearby structures may have been high enough to allow a legal drone flight. (Federal aviation regulations allow drones to fly up to 400 feet above a structure, provided it remains within 400 feet laterally of the structure.) The collision took place at night, though that, too, does not rule out a legal drone flight if the remote pilot in question had a valid waiver for FAR Part 107.29. Police did not find any evidence of the drone involved in this incident, and the UAS was probably destroyed. Dents and scuff marks on the helicopter's horizontal stabilizer (near the tail rotor), and a gouge in one of the tail rotor blades, were found to be consistent with the results of simulated drone impacts on aircraft assemblies. No evidence of biological material was found in the damaged area of the helicopter, effectively ruling out a bird strike. While the NTSB has fielded many reports of drone collisions with other aircraft, drone involvement has been ruled out in most cases. Notable exceptions include a 2017 collision with a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter patrolling New York City, an incident in which the DJI Phantom 4 had been flown far beyond the operator's visual range. In a 2018 incident over Driggs, Idaho, a drone flown by an inexperienced recreational pilot hit a hot air balloon, but did not damage the balloon. In February, a helicopter flying over Johnson Valley, California, collided with a drone while both aircraft were involved in filming an off-road race. The helicopter's windscreen was damaged, but there were no injuries to passengers or crew. This incident appears to hold the distinction of being the first known collision between a manned aircraft and a drone flown by a certificated remote pilot operating under Part 107. The NTSB report released June 29 on the Los Angeles incident in December also notes two other suspected drone collisions, one in Hawaii in February 2018 that took place at 2,900 feet msl, and another in Aurora, Oregon, on May 2018, when a Cessna 170 pilot reported hitting an object at 2,000 feet. Drones were likely involved in both cases, though neither small unmanned aircraft system was found, so investigators were unable to conclusively determine a drone was involved. While actual collisions remain rare (despite the proliferation of drones in recent years), there have been troubling near misses including one involving the U.S. Navy Blue Angels. Aviation safety advocates have expressed concern about mounting evidence that a number of drone operators break the rules, particularly restrictions on flying sUAS in controlled airspace, or above the 400-foot altitude limit. Electronic surveillance of controlled airspace conducted by researchers has found that some number of drones are frequently flown beyond the regulatory limits designed to keep all aircraft safely separated. Other research has found that the worst-case scenario could lead to a fatal accident if a UAS strikes a critical structure at high velocity. https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-news/2020/july/06/ntsb-determines-helicopter-likely-struck-drone Back to Top NTSB: FAA must act on safety recommendations Jennifer Homendy, Member of the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), has urged the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to take action on flight data recorder installation recommendations She wrote: "[Several] months ago, a helicopter carrying nine people collided with a mountainside in Calabasas, California, tragically killing all on board. As the Board member on duty, I launched to Calabasas with a team of NTSB investigators just a few hours after learning of the crash. In the days following the accident, our team of investigators thoroughly examined the details surrounding the collision and I relayed our initial findings to the public. At our final press conference, I highlighted a 2006 safety recommendation issued to the FAA that the agency had refused to implement: require all transport-category rotorcraft operating under Title 14 Code of Federal Regulations Part 91 (requirements for general aviation operations in the United States) and Part 135 (requirements for operating charter and on-demand flights) to be equipped with a CVR and an FDR. The transport-category helicopter in the Calabasas crash was operating under Part 135, but was not equipped with either a CVR or an FDR. "Unfortunately, the absence of a CVR and an FDR in the Calabasas crash was not unique. In fact, the NTSB has investigated several helicopter crashes and issued recommendations to address the lack of crash-resistant flight recording technology onboard helicopters as far back as 1999 (A-99-60). It followed up with comparable recommendations in 2003 (A-03-62 to -65) and 2009 (A-09-9 to -11), and recently released a safety recommendation report detailing several helicopter crashes in which recorded flight data would've helped us better identify potential safety issues. "Expanding the use of recorders has been on the NTSB's Most Wanted List (MWL) going back to 2011. The MWLs in 2014 and 2015 both specifically called for crash-resistant flight recorder systems to be adopted to enhance helicopter safety. Its most current MWL, which spans 2019 and 2020, calls on regulators to 'require all Part 135 operators to install data recording devices' to meet the same safety requirements as commercial airlines." Homendy concluded: "To date, the FAA has not acted on our repeated recommendations regarding crash-resistant and crash-protected flight recording systems for helicopters. Although the FAA encourages helicopter operators to voluntarily use crash-resistant flight recording systems, the agency stops short of mandating CVRs and FDRs. This is especially disappointing because, although flight recording systems are undoubtedly crucial to improving aviation safety, they serve another important function: they provide grieving families with answers. The benefits of crash-resistant flight recording systems well outweigh their cost; it's beyond time for the FAA to take action on our safety recommendations regarding them." https://www.airmedandrescue.com/latest/news/ntsb-faa-must-act-safety-recommendations Back to Top WHO cautions safety as Africa resume air travel Air travel vital to economic health but 'we cannot let our guard down,' says WHO's Africa office The World Health Organization urged African governments Thursday to take effective measures to mitigate the risk of a surge in coronavirus infections due to the resumption of commercial flights. "Air travel is vital to the economic health of countries," Regional Director for Africa Dr. Matshidiso Moeti said in a statement. "But as we take to the skies again, we cannot let our guard down. Our new normal still requires stringent measures to stem the spread of COVID-19." The statement comes after several African countries started to reopen their borders and air spaces. Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Tanzania and Zambia have already resumed commercial flights, according to the WHO. The 15-member Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is expected to open airspace July 21. "The resumption of commercial flights in Africa will facilitate the delivery of crucial supplies such as testing kits, personal protective equipment and other essential health commodities to areas which need them most," according to Moeti, who said flights will help support experts who can go on the ground and work. She said the WHO found that lockdowns, along with public health measures, reduced the spread of the coronavirus pandemic. The Seychelles did not have a locally transmitted case since April 6 ''but in the last week 66 new cases - all crew members of an international fishing vessel - have been recorded,'' the statement said. There are over 415,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases on the African continent - with more than 196,000 recoveries and 10,200 deaths, according to the WHO. After originating in China last December, the virus has spread to at least 188 countries and regions. Europe and the US are currently the worst-hit regions. The pandemic has killed more than 517,600 people worldwide, with and excess of 10.77 million confirmed cases, while recoveries have surpassed 5.52 million, according to figures compiled by US-based Johns Hopkins University. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/africa/who-cautions-safety-as-africa-resume-air-travel/1897884 Back to Top The Coming Apocalypse for U.S. Airline Labor A travel recovery may be starting, but it may not be enough to save thousands of U.S. airline jobs. Unless Congress acts to extend payroll protections, mass layoffs could start on October 1. Throughput at U.S. airport checkpoints, TSA figures show, is rising fast from its April lows. Twice last week, volumes topped 600,000, compared with fewer than 90,000 in mid-April. It's still a small fraction of what a typical June looks like, but people are indeed traveling more as summer begins. Green shoots, perhaps. But there's a reckoning coming. Airlines may be adding back flights and re-opening routes, but major U.S. carriers say their revenues are about one-quarter what they had planned for the summer. And it could take two or three years for demand to recover to pre-Covid levels, particularly for long haul international flights. In the meantime, the industry has no choice but to shrink. When Congress passed the CARES Act stimulus earlier this year, it stipulated that airlines taking federal payroll support funds would have to avoid involuntary layoffs or furloughs through September 30. So for legions of airline workers, winter is coming as that fateful fall date approaches. Just how much airlines will shrink remains uncertain, even to CEOs. But clues abound from carrier fleet plans. Cowen & Co., an investment firm, said earlier this month that the U.S. fleet could shrink by more than 20 percent by the start of 2021, a rough guide to the shape of the industry heading into next year. Cowen estimates that between 800 to 1,000 aircraft in the U.S. fleet might never return to service. Some fleet types will be gone permanently. Delta is retiring its fleet of Boeing 777s and MD-80-series aircraft, while American has said all Boeing 767s will exit the fleet. Alaska has signaled that part of the Airbus A320 fleet it inherited from Virgin America will be retired earlier than planned. And airlines have not exactly been rushing to order new aircraft from Boeing and Airbus (not to mention that hanging over all of this are the continuing Boeing 737 Max travails, which is a dim silver lining in that fleets already were growing more slowly than planned for this year). Headcounts Continuing Earlier this year, Southwest shocked the airline world when CEO Gary Kelly warned that involuntary furloughs - the first since Herb Kelleher and Rollin King sketched out the carrier's plans on a cocktail napkin - might be in the offing. Since then, the industry as a whole has come off bottom, with traffic returning. But airlines are pressing ahead with headcount reductions through voluntary separation and buyouts. Details vary from carrier to carrier, and airlines and unions are keeping mum about ongoing negotiations. Delta, for its part, is offering cash severance, medical and flight benefits. And last week, the Atlanta-based carrier notified its pilot union that it could furlough 2,500 pilots later this year. United is aiming to reduce its management and administrative staff by 30 percent and more than 1,300 have taken the carrier up on its offer of cash and benefits. Southwest is avoiding the involuntary furloughs Kelly warned about and is offering two options: Extended unpaid leave or voluntary separation, which includes generous cash severance, flight benefits, and at least one year of medical benefits. American continues to trim its union and non-union workforces through buyouts and early retirements, and CEO Doug Parker says the company's "stretch goal" is to avoid involuntary furloughs and layoffs after October 1, while warning that the carrier doesn't know what size it will be. JetBlue made news this month when a leaked memo said 300 employees could be laid off after October 1. Notably, there are exceptions, as the pandemic has affected network carriers more harshly than leisure-focused low-cost carriers. Allegiant has said its ultra-low-cost business model and leisure network has afforded it relative strength and therefore does not foresee the need for further reductions in its labor force beyond the pay cuts and voluntary leaves many of its staff have taken. Hawaiian also is taking a wait-and-see approach on reductions, but that is driven by its home state's strict quarantine rules. And Frontier also said that it had offered voluntary separation, but it now does not forecast needing to reduce its headcount further. Stronger Hand Negotiating With Unions The Covid pandemic, of course, is a crisis unlike any other in the century of commercial air transport's existence. In the past 20 years, the industry has weathered the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and a financial crisis, responding with a wave of consolidation. Bankruptcy isn't likely this time around, as airlines still have access to capital, as a flurry of recent stock, bond, and asset sale transactions clearly show. No U.S. airline is anywhere close to running low on cash. This pandemic is especially different, though, for employees. For one, unlike in past crises the pandemic has brought the global airline industry to its knees, and no part of the world has been immune. After the two prior industry shocks, U.S. pilots, flight attendants, and other skilled professionals could leave the U.S. to take highly paid jobs with fast-growing Gulf carriers, Asian carriers, Latin American carriers, and so on. Pilots also had the option to fly for cargo airlines as international trade expanded. Both of these relief valves are gone. This, as it happens, gives U.S. management teams a stronger hand when negotiating with unions. For unions themselves, the willingness to accept concessionary contracts, beyond voluntary separations, is low given the absence of the bankruptcy threat to force their hand. In addition, they see more potential relief in Washington, looking to the federal government to provide another round of protection. A coalition of unions is now calling on Congress to extend the CARES Act payroll support through March 2021, warning that "mass layoffs" will occur in October without the additional funding. The Allied Pilots Association (APA) representing American's pilots is going further, proposing that the government support airlines by buying seats and leaving them empty, to ensure social distancing. It remains unclear if Congress or the Trump administration have the political will or appetite now for further stimulus programs, although the trajectory of the pandemic and the ensuing economic disruption will impact their calculus. Given that further government aid remains uncertain, bankruptcy isn't an option, and lucrative foreign employment (for pilots) is no longer an escape valve, unions have had to be creative in their negotiations with management. Most unions and airlines contacted for this story declined to provide finer details of the packages they're negotiating, citing ongoing talks. But larger themes emerge. "The old playbook is gone," an APA spokesman said. The old playbook usually resulted in the most junior and least well-paid employees being struck off the roster first. On the plus side economically speaking, that left airlines with their most experienced workers. On the down side, it left them with a more expensive workforce. And this is less of an option this time around, as airlines ground their largest aircraft, and thus have less need for their most expensive pilots. APA said the early-out deal it struck with American saw 800 captains of its largest aircraft opt out permanently, with another 4,000 or so choosing various forms of leave. This had the benefit of not only reducing American's costs but also providing job and career advancement opportunities for junior captains and first officers to move to the other seat on the carrier's larger aircraft, APA said. Leaving the most junior pilot workforce in place also allows American to best match its workforce to demand, since domestic short-haul demand is coming back sooner than long-haul international. Another argument unions have against returning to bankruptcy-era concessionary contracts is that the price of fuel is at near-historic lows. In addition, airline revenues are more diversified now with ancillary offerings. And capital markets continue to lend and invest, showering airlines with mountains of cash, albeit mountains of debt as well - that's an issue for another day. The point is, U.S. airlines do not face any imminent risk of bankruptcy or collapse if they don't achieve immediate labor concessions. And that weakens their negotiating position. It also means they can move slowly, and sure enough, airlines and most unions say they're waiting to see what the landscape will look like after October 1 before making any permanent changes to collective bargaining agreements. The Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA), for one, put on ice its talks with management over a new contract, after starting negotiations earlier this year. Working More Closely With Unions In another change from the bankruptcy era (or almost any other era in airline labor relations), unions and management are playing nice and by all accounts are working together to stem the losses. Everyone agrees that workforces will be smaller. It's just a question of how to get there, and airlines are allowing unions to suggest what methods of shrinking and cost-saving work best for their members. Helpfully, early-out packages and temporary leave without pay - both voluntary - are useful tools in reducing headcount in a less disruptive way. Make no mistake though: These tools are not without risk. On the one hand, airlines can cut costs by reducing the number of their most well-paid employees. But this could result in the most productive, experienced, skilled, and talented employees, with the best job prospects elsewhere, lining up first to take their buyout packages and flee. What's more, when the recovery begins, airlines could be left without the human resources necessary to spool up - this could give an advantage to rivals like the Allegiants of the world who aren't planning to dramatically downsize their staffing. Similarly, workers that take leaves of absence could opt never to come back, and even if they do, could take weeks or months of re-training to be ready to work again. There's a risk, in other words, that airlines will overshoot in their autumn zeal to downsize. But is there an upside to this situation? For some, possibly. Airlines that see a quick return to growth, like Allegiant, could hoover up talent let go by other airlines. Second, fuel is cheap, hundreds of used aircraft are on the market, capital markets are open, and airlines are cutting back routes and not using all their slots at constrained airports (JetBlue for one could get access to London slots much easier than it ever expected). With loads of available airline talent, furthermore, the time might even be ripe for a new entrant to capitalize on these trends. JetBlue founder David Neeleman's Breeze is one that's watching. But like much else in this pandemic, uncertainty looms especially large, in labor markets no less than in other realms of the sector. The demand recovery is itself becoming increasingly uncertain, with Covid flare-ups in more than half of all states causing a new round of restrictions on businesses and even quarantine measures among states. The bullishness of just a few weeks ago, alas, was perhaps premature. Some airlines that recently reversed course, saying they'd shrink less than originally planned, are now returning to earlier, more dire predictions. The pandemic's increasing spread in the U.S. could indeed spur the federal government to pass another stimulus measure, potentially saving more airline jobs, if temporarily. As of now though, a winter for labor looms, starting October 1. https://skift.com/2020/07/06/the-coming-apocalypse-for-u-s-airline-labor/ Back to Top El Al Israel Airlines Agrees to Government Assistance Just days after announcing they would be indefinitely suspending all operations, El Al Israel Airlines agreed to become nationalized. This development is part of a plan regarding a bailout for the airline that has had significant financial struggles due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Israel-based carrier and its controlling shareholder Knafaim Holdings had been in discussion with the Israel Ministry of Finance for a bailout as they faced significant financial losses due to the lack of travel demand associated with the coronavirus crisis. Knafaim Holdings has been in control for nearly 15 years, with husband and wife duo, David Borowitz and Tami Moses Borowitz owning nearly 33% of the airline's shares. The plan, which was accepted by El Al's board of directors, includes a 75% guarantee for a $250 million loan. The deal, provided by the Ministry of Finance, also includes that the airline must issue $150 million in shares on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. According to Globes Israel, any shares that are not purchased by the public will be bought by the Israeli government. After all shares are purchased, if the state has a controlling stake, they will then appoint a trustee to the company for a three-year span. This is a significant change of plans from what was originally proposed by the current ownership group in which the government would provide 82.5% guarantees on a $400 million loan. There also would have been a 150 million Israeli new shekel (about $43 million) injection by the owners. While the plan has been approved by the airline's board of directors, different unions associated with working groups within the airline will also have to sign off on the deal, which includes significant cost-cutting measures. These measures include cutting nearly a third of the airline's employees. The bailout is also subject to parliamentary approval. Globes also reported that the El Al Pilots Committee had already voiced support for the Ministry of Finance plan as they favor nationalization rather than financial uncertainty that would come with the current ownership. In a quote to the Associated Press, Transportation Minister Miri Regev said, "This evening the first step was taken to return El Al to the runway. We will work to assist the company during the interim as is needed with the aim of protecting Israel's aviation independence". The Regions Other Airlines El Al Israel is not the first airline in the Middle East and Northern Africa that has needed a bailout due to financial difficulties. EgyptAir announced in May that they would be receiving a $127 million loan from the Egyptian government. In April, Royal Jordanian announced that they had enough cash to last them to the end of June. Last week it was reported by Bloomberg that the airline had asked the government of Jordan for financial assistance to help weather the storm. So far, other Middle Eastern giants such as Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways have not received any known government assistance during the financially difficult times. However, like most airlines across the world, they have had to significantly cut salaries and staff members. https://airlinegeeks.com/2020/07/07/el-al-israel-airlines-agrees-to-government-assistance/ Back to Top Born in Denver, the first female US airline pilot and captain has died at 80 • In 1986, Emily Howell Warner commanded the first all-female flight crew in the U.S. DENVER - The first female U.S. airline pilot and captain has died. Emily Howell Warner was born in Denver in 1939 - she was 80 years old. According to the National Women's Hall of Fame, Warner at age 18 took a flight to Gunnison and fell in love with flying. She made aviation history almost every time she climbed aboard an airliner, the Hall of Fame's website says. She was the first female pilot for a scheduled U.S. carrier, the first female captain and in 1986 commanded the first all-female flight crew in the U.S. The National Aviation Hall of Fame says Warner retired in 2002 after 42 years in aviation where she racked up more than 21,000 hours of flying. Bea Khan Wilhite, former president of Colorado Aviation Historical Society, first met Warner in 1972 when they were planning to put together a kit to create an aircraft. She told 9NEWS her longtime friend passed away a few days ago. "Whatever she did, wherever she went, she was dominant, she was a very very inspiring person," Wilhite said. "Flying was her passion, and she had her first full-time job in aviation at age 19." Wilhite said Warner broke barriers in the male-dominated industry and was hired by Frontier. She was given the Wright brothers award in 1973, inducted into the Colorado Aviation Hall of Fame Historical Society in 1983 and the National Aviation Hall of Fame in 2014. In 2015, Granby County Airport was renamed Emily Warner Field. "We never believe that anybody has ended life, and particularly for pilots," Wilhite said."We believe they fly west, and they continue flying. Emily flew west on July 3rd, and she will be missed and lovingly remembered. "Emily has most definitely left her mark in the aviation industry, and I know I will love her always," Wilhite said. "I'm very very fortunate that she was my friend." https://www.9news.com/article/news/history/born-in-denver-the-first-female-us-airline-pilot-captain-has-died-at-80/73-8852e45f-c1ce-438e-a2b5-2108d5b2b0ee Back to Top Pilots Were Once in Short Supply. Now They're Losing Their Jobs. Before the pandemic, airlines worried about not being able to replace retiring baby boomers. Eager recruits expect to bear the brunt of layoffs. Joshua Weinstein always wanted to be an airline pilot, but the industry was in crisis when he started college in 2002, so he became a middle school teacher instead. He loved that job, but after a decade of flying in his free time at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars, Mr. Weinstein began hearing more about a looming pilot shortage and left the classroom in 2018 to pursue his dream. It worked: In January, he started training to fly for ExpressJet, which operates regional flights for United Airlines. But the coronavirus pandemic, which devastated the airline business, could thin the ranks of pilots by the thousands and has already put the nascent careers of people like Mr. Weinstein on hold. "The worst part right now is that the only thing we know is that nobody knows anything," he said. "There's uncertainty. We just don't know what happens next." For years, flight schools, airlines and experts encouraged people like Mr. Weinstein to become pilots. They promised young recruits a job that was lucrative and secure because thousands of pilots in their late 50s and early 60s would retire in the coming years and demand for travel would continue growing. The profession is still stacked with older aviators, but airlines are expected to make deep cuts in the coming months, and the pilots most at risk are those who are just starting out. While air travel has recovered somewhat, it is still only about a fourth of what it was last year, according to airport security data. Most experts say the recovery will be slow and uneven because of a patchwork of travel bans and the unpredictable nature of the pandemic. The recent surge in coronavirus infections has already forced some governors to delay reopening their state economies and to shut down bars and other businesses. If cases continue to increase, as some public health experts fear, air travel could become a lot less appealing. To prepare for that uncertain future, the nation's largest airlines are stockpiling billions of dollars in cash. If ticket sales do not recover soon, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United have said they could resort to job cuts as soon as Oct. 1, the first day when airlines are free to eliminate jobs and reduce hours under a stimulus law that Congress approved in March. Airlines could lay off, furlough or reduce the hours of tens of thousands of pilots, cuts that would disproportionately fall on those who have less union seniority and training. Major airlines have already stopped hiring pilots after posting hundreds of openings in the first quarter of the year, according to Future & Active Pilot Advisors, a consulting firm. Several companies are offering buyout packages to avoid deeper cuts later. Southwest has acknowledged in discussions with its pilots union that the airline is likely overstaffed by more than a thousand pilots. The company is offering several years of partial pay and benefits to those who agree to leave the company temporarily or permanently. Delta warned last week that it could furlough nearly 2,600 pilots and is offering early-retirement packages. Some pilots said the turmoil was nerve-racking, but those who have been in the profession for a while have come to expect it. "You kind of know going in that aviation has high highs and low lows," said Lisa Archibald, 41, a Delta pilot and volunteer with the airline's pilot union, the Delta Master Executive Council. "You do it because you love what you do." ImageSeveral airlines are offering their pilots buyout packages in hopes of reducing cuts when layoffs can begin in October. Several airlines are offering their pilots buyout packages in hopes of reducing cuts when layoffs can begin in October.Credit...Jim Wilson/The New York Times Like Mr. Weinstein, Ms. Archibald arrived at the job by way of a detour. After graduating from Purdue University's School of Aviation and Transportation Technology, she was hired to fly at American Eagle, which American Airlines owns. But the job started days before the 2001 terrorist attacks, and she was furloughed after just a few weeks. About a year later, Ms. Archibald found a job piloting corporate jets, which she did for 15 years. She joined Delta in May 2017. Unsurprisingly, pilots are passionate about the profession. That's why they spend years in grueling training programs, trying to rack up the minimum flight hours and credentials needed to become airline pilots, at a cost of up to $100,000, not including the price of a college degree. Mr. Weinstein, 36, estimates that he easily spent between $50,000 and $70,000 on flight training, offset by what he earned working at the flight school and teaching middle school in New Jersey over a decade. At ExpressJet, first-year pilots earn a minimum $36,000 a year. Many pilots borrow tens of thousands of dollars to pay for their training, loans that can take years to pay off. While veteran pilots at the big airlines can make as much as $300,000 a year, starting salaries at regional airlines can be as low as $30,000, according to Future & Active Pilot Advisors. Most pilots typically spend several years at a regional outfit before making it to a larger carrier. The median salary for the country's nearly 125,000 airline and commercial pilots is about $121,000, according to federal data. In recent years, airlines were so worried about finding enough pilots that they took steps to secure a steady supply of workers. United, for example, said in February that it was buying a flight school in Phoenix in anticipation of a need to hire more than 10,000 pilots by 2029. Boeing's chief executive said last year that the pilot shortage was "one of the biggest challenges" facing the industry. Global demand was growing so quickly that airlines would need to hire 645,0000 pilots over the next two decades to keep up, about 131,000 of them in North America, Boeing predicted. Historically, most airline pilots cut their teeth in the military, but the armed forces have increased the minimum years that pilots must serve, said Mike Wiggins, the chairman of the department of aeronautical science at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. As a result, for the past decade or so, most new airline pilots have been civilians. The shortage was long in the making, but has been delayed time and time again, first by the 2001 terrorist attacks, then by the Great Recession and the Federal Aviation Administration's decision to raise the mandatory pilot retirement age to 65 from 60. The pandemic will likely push it further down the road. "A lot of those dynamics are still going to be there," Mr. Wiggins said. "Obviously, the growth is not there right now. But the retirements are still going to be there. Time marches on." Mr. Weinstein knows those dynamics well. He had wanted to become a pilot since he toured a cockpit when he was 6, but his timing always seemed off. He started college just after the Sept. 11 attacks and graduated just as the Great Recession took hold. He finally landed a piloting job this year, but was told in May that ExpressJet was pausing training for him and dozens of other new pilots. So Mr. Weinstein has returned to working at the flight school where he learned to become a pilot, offering virtual instruction and flying when he can. He and Ms. Archibald have been in touch with people in their former careers, waiting to see how the next few months shape up and how their employers sort out what and how many jobs will remain after the federal stimulus ends. Whatever the outcome, Mr. Weinstein said, all that effort has been worth it. "I have something to show for it because I did make it to the airlines and I did get hired and I did achieve that dream," he said. "And so part of me says not to regret a single moment of it, because I put my mind to something and I did it." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/business/pilots-jobs-shortage-airlines.html Back to Top ASTM Approves New Sustainable Jet Fuel Process ATSM International, the standards body that assures the testing and safety of any new fuel product, has approved a new alternative jet fuel production pathway, bringing the total available to the aviation industry to seven. The new process proposed by California-based Fulcrum BioEnergy involves the use of a synthetic crude oil derived from municipal waste, which can be co-processed with petroleum at the refinery level. The latest approval moves the inclusion of sustainable alternative fuel (SAF) further upstream in the process and will allow any standard petroleum refinery to be able to use the synthetic crude oil along with regular crude oil. Most previous alternative jet fuel processes involved blending a refined SAF with conventional Jet-A at the refinery gate. Fulcrum pioneered a process which involves the use of a Fisher-Tropsch reactor to transform household trash such as otherwise unrecyclable food-contaminated cardboard, paper, and textiles, into a gas. The gas is then converted into a waxy material similar to petroleum, but which doesn't contain the sulfur, metals, or other contaminants that can be found in normal petroleum. "Approval of this process is significant for the entire alternative fuel industry, and it was an industry-wide effort to pursue approval," explained Bruno Miller, Fulcrum's managing director of fuels and regulatory affairs, adding that other entities joined the push for Fischer-Tropsch co-processing, including oil companies, biofuel producers, and aircraft and engine manufacturers, and the FAA. "Fuels made from petroleum and synthetic crude are cleaner and will help transportation companies decarbonize." The announcement of the approval comes as a particular boost to Fulcrum, which is constructing a Sierra BioFuels plant outside of Reno, Nevada. Described as the first "garbage-to-jet-fuel plant in the world," it is expected to become operational later this year and process 175,000 tons of municipal solid waste into 11 million gallons of synthetic crude oil a year. "Approval by ASTM effectively greenlights the use of the new fuels in commercial and military aviation, because it signals to the industry that they meet all testing criteria for certification as viable and safe products," said Steve Zabarnick, division head for fuels and combustion at the University of Dayton Research Institute (UDRI), which since 2015 has coordinated the testing and evaluation of all new alternative fuels through the FAA's D4054 Clearinghouse. D4054 is the ASTM standard dealing with the qualification and approval of alternative jet fuels and additives. Zabarnick and his team perform most of the initial lab tests on these new fuels and production methods, as well as coordinating further trials such as full-scale engine testing at external facilities. When the testing campaign is completed, a technical report on the results is distributed to engine and airframe OEMs for evaluation, and then passed along to the experts at ASTM for a vote on whether to approve the product. In another project chaperoned by UDRI, ASTM last month granted approval to a new bio-jet fuel produced in Japan by the IHI Corp. from fast-growing microalgae. According to ASTM's D7566 Annex 7 standard, the new renewable fuel can be blended with standard Jet-A at a specified ratio and used in commercial aircraft with no modifications required. A demonstration flight using the fuel on a domestic route in Japan is planned for later in the year. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/business-aviation/2020-07-06/astm-approves-new-sustainable-jet-fuel-process Back to Top Japan Airlines Retires First Long-Range Jet During Covid-19 Travel Downturn Japan Airlines has retired its first long-range jet during Covid-19 but is not yet planning a larger aircraft withdrawal program. • JAL sent a 17-year-old 777-200ER to California's Victorville desert boneyard. "This specific aircraft has been retired," a JAL spokesperson said. It was one of 11 -200ERs, some of which will remain with Japan's second-largest airline. "We still intend to feature the 200ER aircraft for several more years." While most airlines are reining in ambitious international networks, JAL may already be more right-sized for coming years as travel recovers. JAL's conservative global footprint is a legacy of its bankruptcy that imposed temporary growth limits and gave lasting complications to expand. JAL expected to operate the -200ERs well into the 2020s, having launched a cabin retrofit project in 2016 to give the jets lie-flat, direct aisle access business class seats on flights to Southeast Asia and Hawaii. The JAL spokesman confirmed the aircraft was outfitted with the new business class, as well as premium economy. Airlines typically expect seats to last for at least seven years. "Although there are no specific dates set today, JAL's -200ER aircraft will be retired in due time," the spokesperson said, adding that replacements could be existing fleet including other 777s, 787s or even 767s. Larger home rival All Nippon Airways has yet to announce any outcomes from its strategy review. "We intend to revise our fleet plans as we identify demand trends. The retirement of aircraft we already own is included as one of our options," ANA said in May. It flagged "group-wide adaptability in dealing with our fleet," suggesting there could be more integration and route swapping between ANA and group LCC Peach Aviation. JAL expects to restore 80% of domestic capacity in August and a normal schedule as early as October. Domestic markets, which don't have foreign restrictions or quarantine, are a buffer for airlines. But JAL is still exposed to weakened international travel. It had a 51-49 split on international versus domestic passenger revenue in the nine months to December 31, 2019. In May it flew only 1% of passengers as a year ago. JAL owns almost all of its widebodies, including the 11 777-200ERs, giving it flexibility to retire aircraft. But having paid for the jets may allow any marginal growth not desirable if JAL had to pay lease rentals. Delta Air Lines owns the 777-200ERs and -200LRs it decided to retire in the wake of Covid-19 despite having completed an interior refit only last year, more recent than JAL's refurb. American Airlines said it could replace its -200ERs with 787s on order. JAL's retired aircraft was in the upper range, but not oldest, of the -200ERs delivered 2002-2005. The spokesman noted retirements are based on age and maintenance needs. The indicated replacements include 767s, some of which were delivered as recently as 2011. JAL will also have redeployment options for its 777-300ERs, due to be replaced by A350-1000s in a few years. JAL has retired non-ER 777-200s, and sent older 787s to wholly-owned hybrid start-up Zip Air Tokyo. https://www.forbes.com/sites/willhorton1/2020/07/07/japan-airlines-retires-first-long-range-jet-during-covid-19-travel-downturn/#62b81a13eb33 TO ALL PROFESSIONAL PILOTS, AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS, members of their Management, Regulators and related organizations (airplane, helicopter, civil or military) WE REQUEST YOUR SUPPORT FOR A JOINT AVIATION SAFETY SURVEY (JASS) ON: "AERONAUTICAL DECISION-MAKING, INCL. MONITORING & INTERVENTION IN PRACTICE" Dear aviation colleague, you are invited to participate in a research project conducted by the department of Psychology at City, University of London, which aims to elicit your views and thoughts on Aeronautical Decision-Making, including Monitoring and Intervention in normal operation,by which we mean routine line flights without any incidents or technical malfunctions. The questions deal with teamwork and decision-making issues in various Pilot-roles, e.g. the role of the Pilot Monitoring (PM), Pilot Flying (PF), Pilot in Command (PIC) and Co-Pilot, and respectively in the Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)-roles of the coordinating and radioing/radar ATCO as well as pilot's and controller's training and occupational picture. This survey is completely anonymous - no identifying information will be requested or collected - and all responses will be treated as strictly confidential. The survey is approved by City's research and ethics committee (Approval Code: ETH 1920-1414). The introductory section of the survey will provide you with further information and the informed consent. Please click here to access the survey or copy the survey-link below into your browser. https://cityunilondon.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6n7cxeunMyfy0fz By completing the questionnaire, you can - in addition to supporting aviation safety research - even do more good as we will donate a minimum of €2 for the first 1000 fully completed responses to the UNICEF COVID-19 Solidarity Response Fund which helps to care for vulnerable children and communities all over the world. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us via email: aviationsafety@city.ac.uk or tom.becker.1@city.ac.uk or via phone: +49 172 7178780. We thank you very much in advance. Your support is truly appreciated. Best regards, Capt. Tom Becker Prof. Peter Ayton Back to Top GRADUATE RESEARCH SURVEY Dear Participants, You are being asked to participate in a research study of your opinions and attitudes about stress and mental health. This research started almost two years ago. The purpose of this study is to examine mental health issues in aviation, specifically Part 121 airline pilots. During this study, you will be asked to complete a brief online survey about your opinions on various life circumstances, stress, and mental health topics. This study is expected to take approximately 15 minutes of your time. In order to participate, you must possess an FAA issued Airline Transport Certificate (ATP) and you must also be currently working as a pilot for a Part 121 air carrier that is headquartered within the United States. Participation in this study is voluntary and data will be collected anonymously, stored confidentially, and you may choose to opt out of the study at any time. We sincerely appreciate your consideration and time to complete our study, as it is another small but important step towards increasing safety in aviation. Please click on the link below to complete the survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7ZG6M6L For more information, please contact: Tanya Gatlin - Student Researcher Gatlint1@my.erau.edu 281-924-1336 Dr. Scott Winter - Faculty Advisor winte25e@erau.edu 386-226-6491 Curt Lewis