Flight Safety Information - June 15, 2023 No. 115 In This Issue : Incident: Smartwings B738 near Heraklion on Jun 14th 2023, loss of cabin pressure : Incident: American A321 near Los Angeles on Jun 12th 2023, hydraulic failure : Beechcraft 200 Super King Air - Gear Up Landing (Florida) : Raising Pilots’ Retirement Age to 67 Gets Nod in House FAA Bill : Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific offers junior pilots chance to rise through ranks at HK Express in bid to retain talent : Did You Know: Incorrect Safety Cards Can Cause Flight Delays : Global Commercial Passenger Aircraft Fleet to Nearly Double by 2042 : TSA at Pittsburgh International Airport stop two guns in four days at security checkpoints : United Airlines to launch first electric commuter flights for San Francisco : Beyond Automation: How AI Is Transforming Aviation Incident: Smartwings B738 near Heraklion on Jun 14th 2023, loss of cabin pressure A Smartwings Boeing 737-800, registration OK-TSO performing flight QS-1111 from Chania (Greece) to Prague (Czech Republic), was climbing through FL250 out of Chania when the crew initiated an emergency descent due to the loss of cabin pressure, the passenger oxygen masks were deployed. The aircraft turned around and diverted to Heraklion (Greece) where the aircraft landed on runway 27 without further incident about 50 minutes after departure. A replacement Boeing 737-800 registration OK-TVY reached Prague with a delay of about 8:20 hours. The occurrence aircraft remained on the ground for about 7 hours, then departed for a positioning flight to Prague and is currently maintaining a maximum FL240 enroute. https://avherald.com/h?article=50a7527f&opt=0 Incident: American A321 near Los Angeles on Jun 12th 2023, hydraulic failure An American Airlines Airbus A321-200, registration N106NN performing flight AA-1632 from Los Angeles,CA to Boston,MA (USA), was climbing out of Los Angeles when the crew stopped the climb at FL270, after about 8 minutes the crew decided to return to Los Angeles reporting a hydraulic failure. The aircraft climbed to FL290 for the return and landed safely back on Los Angeles' runway 25R about one hour after departure. A replacement Airbus A321-200 registration N109NN reached Boston with a delay of about 7.5 hours. https://avherald.com/h?article=50a750ce&opt=0 Beechcraft 200 Super King Air - Gear Up Landing (Florida) Date: 13-JUN-2023 Time: c. 12:50 LT Type: Beechcraft 200 Super King Air Owner/operator: White Aviation LLC Registration: N621JG MSN: BB-834 Fatalities: Fatalities: 0 / Occupants: 2 Other fatalities: 0 Aircraft damage: Minor Location: Placida-Coral Creek Airport (FA54), FL - United States of America Phase: Landing Nature: Private Departure airport: Panama City-Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL (ECP/KECP) Destination airport: Placida-Coral Creek Airport, FL (FA54) Confidence Rating: Information is only available from news, social media or unofficial sources Narrative: A Beechcraft 200 Super King Air made a belly-landing on Rwy 23 at Placida-Coral Creek Airport (FA54), Florida, due to a landing gear malfunction. The aircraft came to a stop, resting on the fuselage. The two occupants onboard were not injured. http://www.aviation-safety.net/wikibase/315210 Raising Pilots’ Retirement Age to 67 Gets Nod in House FAA Bill Pilots would be able to fly commercial planes for an additional two years under an amendment added to House aviation legislation to respond to increased demand for workers. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee on Wednesday narrowly approved an amendment by a 32-31 vote that would increase the mandatory retirement age for commercial airline pilots to 67, up from 65. The provision now is included in sweeping legislation (H.R. 3935) to reauthorize the Federal Aviation Administration. The panel is still working to complete its marathon markup of the FAA bill — which would then need to pass on the House floor and be negotiated with the Senate. “Never before have US airlines been more desperate for pilots,” Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), who sponsored the amendment, said as the panel debated the measure Tuesday. Nehls noted that there isn’t the same restriction for pilots of private or charter planes. Bid to Let Pilots Fly Until 67 Gets New Look Amid Travel Woes Thousands of certified pilots will reach the mandatory retirement age each year over the next two decades, according to the Government Accountability Office. Some pilots and groups representing regional and low-cost airlines have pushed Congress to change the retirement age to keep them on until they turn 67. Opponents say raising the retirement age, which last increased to 65 from 60 in 2007, is a short-term fix to a long-term challenge, and one that raises scheduling and safety concerns. Rep. Rick Larsen (D-Wash.), ranking member of the committee, urged lawmakers to oppose the amendment. But Republicans stood behind the proposal. ‘Dire Shortage’ of Pilots Prompts Effort to Boost Student Loans “Our pilot shortage is right now,” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.), chairman of the aviation subcommittee, said during the markup, pointing to how medical testing would ensure that pilots can fly safely. “Sixty-five years old is not old.” https://about.bgov.com/news/raising-pilots-retirement-age-to-67-gets-nod-in-house-faa-bill/ Hong Kong’s Cathay Pacific offers junior pilots chance to rise through ranks at HK Express in bid to retain talent Captain Chris Kempis, Cathay’s director of flight operations, says plan will help to meet HK Express’ short-term need for pilots and offer career development options ‘This arrangement will further support our growth trajectory, providing more promotion opportunities for our current first officers to become captains,’ HK Express CEO says Junior pilots with Cathay Pacific Airways can apply for senior positions with its budget arm HK Express as part of a bid by Hong Kong’s flag carrier to retain talent and rebuild flight capacity. Second officers with Cathay would be allowed to serve as first officers with HK Express for two years, before returning to the lead airline while retaining the higher rank, the Cathay Group on Wednesday announced. Captain Chris Kempis, director of flight operations, said the voluntary scheme was aimed at satisfying the budget airline’s short-term need for pilots, while giving those flying with Cathay Pacific a chance to move up the ranks. New aircrew at Hong Kong’s Cathay to earn up to HK$20,000 a month as flights grow 13 Jun 2023 HK Express is seeking to expand the number of destinations it serves, and hire 180 new pilots and more than 300 cabin crew by the end of this year. “This arrangement will further support our growth trajectory, providing more promotion opportunities for our current first officers to become captains,” airline CEO Jeanette Mao Jie-qiong said. In March, the airline said it expected to operate 500 flights per week by the summer and cover about 22 destinations. The budget airline maintains a fleet of 27 aircraft, which are all narrow-body airliners produced by Airbus, with the low-cost carrier receiving the first of 16 such planes in March. Paul Weatherilt, chairman of the Hong Kong Aircrew Officers Association, which represents about half of all Cathay pilots, said he supported the new promotion plan. But the association chair noted that Cathay was still short of captains, with the flag carrier contending with a flight crew training backlog. Asked if the new scheme would help retain talent, Weatherilt said: “It isn’t second officers that have been leaving. Cathay currently has the same number of second officers that it had pre-pandemic.” It was not clear how HK Express’ compensation package for junior pilots would stack up against Cathay’s, whether the scheme would be attractive enough or what the return path back to the flag carrier would involve, he added. An internal Cathay memo seen by the Post said those who flew with HK Express for two years could get promoted sooner than if they opted for the other airline’s training plan. According to the document, applicants looking to switch to the budget carrier would need at least 1,000 hours of flight experience. However, a junior Cathay pilot who declined to be named raised concerns that those joining the scheme could face an overall pay reduction with more short haul flights under HK Express’ conditions of service. While both factors could deter more salary-conscious pilots, some who were eager to fly might be interested in joining the scheme, he added. Cathay’s newly minted junior pilots on June 1 started a trial programme that aims to broaden their induction experience by taking up duties at the city’s airport, such as receiving frontline customer training across different positions. Cathay Group is currently running at about 50 per cent of its pre-Covid-19 passenger flight capacity, with the company aiming to reach 70 per cent by the year’s end and 100 per cent by the close of 2024. Amid reduced travel demand during the pandemic, the company axed 5,900 jobs, closed its regional arm Cathay Dragon and initiated a HK$39 billion (US$4.9 billion) government-backed restructuring plan. Cathay Group also introduced cheaper employment contracts for pilots and cabin crew as part of cost-cutting measures. As part of measures to boost staff morale, Cathay Pacific on Monday said cabin crew from July could see their monthly earnings increase by between 3 to 8 per cent due to productivity pay, which is tied to hours flown. The airline in January raised its base monthly salary by 3.3 per cent and increased pilot allowances, while a new outport turnaround allowance was launched a month later. Morale among Cathay staff suffered last month after three crew members were sacked for insulting the English-speaking abilities of some mainland Chinese passengers on a flight to Hong Kong. At the time, the flight attendants’ union described morale as “extremely low” and in need of desperate attention. The incident came after Cathay pilots were warned against slowly taxiing on runways to clock more hours and boost their pay. Authorities had accused them of contributing to congestion at the airport. https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3224086/hong-kongs-cathay-pacific-offers-junior-pilots-chance-rise-through-ranks-hk-express-bid-retain Did You Know: Incorrect Safety Cards Can Cause Flight Delays How a small piece of paper can cause big problems. Airline safety cards are just as essential in commercial aviation as seat buckles. They are designed for safety, and while some passengers may overlook their importance, incorrect cards can lead to frustrating flight delays. What can cause such an event, and why are cards placed in aircraft seatbacks anyways? Let us put all our cards on the tables for this topic. The origins of cards Safety cards have been used in aviation for several decades but became more prevalent in the late 1960s and early 1970s. This period coincided with a significant expansion in commercial air travel and an increased focus on passenger safety. In the early days of commercial aviation, flight attendants typically conveyed safety information to passengers through oral briefings. However, as air travel became more accessible and passenger numbers grew, it became necessary to provide a standardized and easily accessible format for safety instructions. The first safety cards were simple, often a single sheet of paper with basic illustrations and instructions. Over time, they evolved into more comprehensive and visually detailed documents. Today, safety cards are typically made of durable materials, contain clear graphics, and provide step-by-step instructions for various emergency scenarios. How can incorrect safety cards cause flight delays? Incorrect safety cards can cause flight delays by triggering non-compliance with regulatory requirements, leading to the need for obtaining and distributing correct safety cards. They can also result in confusion among passengers, requiring additional explanations or briefings and potentially necessitating crew retraining. Ultimately, flight delays may occur to ensure passenger safety and address any hazards that incorrect safety cards pose. Incorrect safety cards can potentially cause flight delays due to: • Regulatory Compliance: Aviation authorities require airlines to ensure that safety cards accurately represent the specific aircraft's layout and safety features. The airline may be deemed non-compliant if incorrect safety cards are discovered during pre-flight inspections or regulatory audits. In such cases, the airline must rectify the issue by obtaining and distributing the correct safety cards before the aircraft can be cleared for departure. This process can lead to delays while waiting for the proper safety cards to be obtained and distributed. • Passenger Familiarity: Passengers rely on safety cards to familiarize themselves with the aircraft's layout and safety procedures. If the safety cards contain incorrect information or outdated illustrations, passengers may become confused or uncertain about essential instructions. In such cases, flight attendants may need to provide additional explanations or conduct briefings to ensure passenger understanding. This can lead to delays as the crew members take extra time to address any potential confusion or questions from the passengers. • Crew Training: Flight attendants and crew members undergo training based on the specific safety features and emergency procedures of the aircraft they will be operating. Suppose the safety cards provided need to be corrected or do not match the actual aircraft configuration. In that case, crew members may require additional time for retraining or clarification on the correct procedures. This training delay can cause the flight departure to be delayed until the crew is adequately prepared. • Safety Concerns: Incorrect safety cards may present safety hazards since passengers will rely on inaccurate information during emergencies. For example, if the location or operation of emergency exits is misrepresented, passengers may be unable to evacuate efficiently, potentially endangering lives. In such cases, airlines prioritize passenger safety. They may delay the flight to ensure that the correct safety cards are distributed and that passengers are appropriately informed of the proper emergency procedures. A firsthand account A Simple Flying reader contacted us to advise of a situation where he experienced a flight delay that, in his opinion, was due to incorrect safety cards. He was a passenger on a flight from London Gatwick to Amsterdam Schiphol. According to the reader, although loading was complete, the cabin doors were not closed. The captain came on the intercom to explain that the safety cards were "out of date" and needed to be replaced. A few minutes later, he explained that the aircraft had recently been transferred from a Swiss carrier (and was fresh from the maintenance facility at Lasham) and still had Swiss safety cards. About 30 minutes later, the jet had new UK-issued cards. Other similar examples have been posted online. Whether an oversight or intentional operational errors, incorrect safety cards may not only delay flights but risk passengers' lives in the event of an emergency. https://simpleflying.com/did-you-know-incorrect-safety-cards-can-cause-flight-delays/ Global Commercial Passenger Aircraft Fleet to Nearly Double by 2042 According to aircraft lessor Avolon’s World Fleet Forecast, the worldwide commercial passenger aviation fleet will almost double by 2024, growing 94% to 46,880 aircraft. The report noted that this forecast is underpinned by sustained growth in demand for air travel, particularly building on the industry’s recovery since the first few years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Avolon estimates that more than $4 trillion will be required to finance the 44,300 new passenger commercial aircraft to be delivered over the next 20 years, providing a considerable opportunity for lessors to partner with airlines globally to finance their growth ambitions. Passenger demand will continue to rise by roughly 3.5% per annum from a 2019 base, but the pace of expansion will be lower than the 5% to 6% of the previous 20 years due to reduced potential for further deregulation to drive growth and higher fares because of aircraft supply shortages and increasing sustainability levies. The biggest growth driver will be new middle-class consumers, particularly in India, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Aviation is confronting the challenge of decoupling growth from environmental impact. Trillions of dollars of new investment will be required to fund the required transition to new-technology, lower emissions aircraft, to ramp up the supply of sustainable aviation fuel and to explore new designs that pioneer alternative energy sources. According to Avolon, aircraft lessors will play a key role in accelerating fleet renewal, and a growing industry will attract the capital required to hit aviation’s net zero target by 2050. Key Takeaways The regions expected to experience the biggest increase in travel by 2042 will be India (4.4%), China (3.7%), Asia (5%) and Latin America (4.9%). Mature markets such as North America (2%) and Europe (3.1%) will continue to grow, although at a more moderate rate. According to Avolon, 44,300 new aircraft will be delivered over the forecast period and 21,600 aircraft will exit the passenger fleet through decommissioning at the end of their economic life or freighter conversion. Growth of the narrowbody fleet (112%) will outpace widebody fleet growth (97%), as single-aisle aircraft are able to accommodate more passengers and transcontinental flight distances. Regional jet (11%) and turboprop (36%) growth will be more modest. The global fleet will have transitioned to largely (95%) new-technology, fuel-efficient aircraft by the end of the forecast period. Airbus is set to maintain its strong market position in the narrowbody segment, accounting for 58% of the global narrowbody fleet in 2042 compared to 53% currently. Boeing will maintain its 59% share leadership of the widebody segment, with the resumption of 787 deliveries a key driver. Current supply constraints will continue into the second half of the decade, increasing the value of booked production slots and aircraft that have already been delivered. Airlines that have not secured sufficient capacity will rely on lessors for new and used aircraft. “The human desire to connect with friends and family and to do business remains undiminished, as shown by the post-pandemic recovery in air travel,” Andy Cronin, CEO of Avolon, said. “Emerging markets and their growing middle class underpin our forecast for continued expansion of the global fleet. Near-term production constraints will remain a feature and will reward those who have secured their orderbook pipeline. The resilience aviation has shown, and its anticipated long-term growth trend, reaffirms the investment case for aircraft as an asset class.” “Whilst the pace of growth in demand for travel will moderate, increasing GDP per capita will drive the global fleet to nearly double by 2042,” Jim Morrison, chief risk officer of Avolon and co-author of the report, said. “Delivering on sustainability commitments is an imperative to secure aviation’s continued growth. Fleet renewal, scaling sustainable aviation fuel production and the development of transformational new aircraft designs will be capital intensive. Lessors will play a critical role in the industry’s future success and net zero transition.” https://www.monitordaily.com/news-posts/global-commercial-passenger-aircraft-fleet-to-nearly-double-by-2042/ TSA at Pittsburgh International Airport stop two guns in four days at security checkpoints PITTSBURGH, Pa. – Transportation Security Administration officers at Pittsburgh International Airport have stopped two guns in the last four days at security checkpoints, bringing the total caught this year to 19—well on pace to set a new record for the number of guns caught in a single year. The most recent gun caught was early this morning (June 14) when a man from West Leechburg, Pa., in Westmoreland County, showed up with a 9 mm handgun loaded with 16 bullets including one in the chamber. Four days earlier, on June 10, an Atlanta man was arrested when a TSA officer removed a .357 revolver with 50 bullets from the man’s fanny pack. The gun was unloaded, however it was packed with two speed loaders with six bullets each and an additional loose 38 rounds of ammunition. In each instance when the TSA officer spotted the guns in the checkpoint X-ray machines, airport police were alerted, came to the checkpoint and confiscated the weapons and ammunition. Each individual also faces a stiff federal financial civil penalty. Federal penalties for bringing weapons to the checkpoint can run as high as $15,000, depending on the circumstances. When a traveler brings a gun to the airport checkpoint, the U.S. States Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Pennsylvania requests county sheriffs to rescind a resident’s firearm concealed carry license due to negligence. “The proliferation of people bringing their guns to our checkpoints needs to end,” said TSA Federal Security Director Karen Keys-Turner. “Our officers have stopped four guns at our checkpoints in the first two weeks of this month—two in the last four days. Security is serious business and we don’t need people introducing guns into the airport environment, regardless of whether there is any intent to do harm. Toting a gun to an airport is an accident waiting to happen. When you factor in the fact that most travelers claim that they forgot that they had their gun with them, well that’s just inexcusable. Responsible gun owners know where their guns are at all times and they know not to attempt to carry one onto a flight.” Passengers are permitted to travel with firearms only in checked baggage if they are unloaded and packed in a hard-sided locked case. Then the locked case should be taken to the airline check-in counter to be declared. TSA has details on how to properly travel with a firearm posted on its website. Firearms are not permitted through a security checkpoint because passengers should not have access to a firearm during a flight. This even applies to travelers with concealed carry permits or are enrolled in the TSA PreCheck® program, who will lose their TSA PreCheck privileges if they bring a gun to a checkpoint. Individuals who bring their gun to a security checkpoint also face a federal financial civil penalty. Last year, 6,542 firearms were caught at 262 out of 430 airport security checkpoints nationwide. Eighty-eight percent of those guns were loaded. Bringing a gun to an airport checkpoint carries a federal civil penalty because TSA reserves the right to issue a civil penalty to travelers who have guns and gun parts with them at a checkpoint. Civil penalties for bringing a gun into a checkpoint can stretch into thousands of dollars, depending on mitigating circumstances. This applies to travelers with or without concealed gun carry permits because even though an individual may have a concealed carry permit, it does not allow for a firearm to be carried onto an airplane. The complete list of civil penalties is posted online. Additionally, if a traveler with a gun is a member of TSA PreCheck®, that individual will lose their TSA PreCheck privileges. Firearm possession laws vary by state and locality and passengers should do their homework to make sure that they are not violating any local firearm laws. Travelers should also contact their airline as they may have additional requirements for traveling with firearms and ammunition. Unsure if an item should be packed in a carry-on bag, checked bag, either or neither? Download the free myTSA app, which has a handy “What can I bring?” feature that allows you to type in the item to find out if it can fly. Or ask on Twitter or Facebook Messenger at @AskTSA. Travelers may send a question by texting “Travel” to AskTSA (275-872). https://www.tsa.gov/news/press/releases/2023/06/14/tsa-pittsburgh-international-airport-stop-two-guns-four-days United Airlines to launch first electric commuter flights for San Francisco Soon you can hop on a fully electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft in the San Fransico Bay area for a quick, cost-effective way of getting around while limiting emissions. United Airlines and Eve Air Mobility revealed plans on Wednesday to launch the first electric commuter flights throughout the Bay Area. Last year, United Airlines became the first major airliner to publicly invest in two eVTOL companies. Its first investment was in Archer Aviation in 2021. Earlier this year, United and Archer revealed they would fly the first electric air taxi route in Chicago, using Archer’s Midnight Aircraft. Using six battery packs, the Midnight is designed to carry four passengers, luggage, and a pilot for up to 100 miles. Its first flight is this summer. Last September, United revealed a new $15 million investment in Eve Air Mobility, a subsidiary of Embraer, with a conditional purchase agreement to buy up to 400 electric taxis (200 are optional) as early as 2026. The partners took it a step further, announcing plans on Wednesday to launch the first electric commuter flights in San Francisco. United to launch first electric commuter flights in SF United and Eve Air Mobility plan to bring Urban Air Mobility (UAM) to San Francisco with the first electric commuter flights in the area. The alliance will work with local and state officials, infrastructure, energy, and tech providers to ensure the proper equipment is in place for the eVTOLs. Eve’s eVTOL is 100% electric and can carry up to four passengers plus one pilot for up to 60 miles range (100 km). The company says its electric aircraft offers over 600% lower cost-per-seat than helicopters and can reduce emissions by up to 80% vs. traveling by car. Eve’s EVTOL is slated to enter service in 2026. Rather than relying on combustion engines, eVTOLs offer a carbon-free alternative in urban markets. Also, you can skip the traffic during rush hour. Reducing emissions from air travel As one of the largest American airline companies, United Airlines has a massive responsibility to reduce its environmental impact. United was the first US airliner to commit to reducing its GHG emissions by 50% by 2050, later upping its goal to 100%. The best part: United plans to do it without using common carbon offsetting tactics. Instead, United has made a series of investments to drive down future emissions like the ones mentioned above. Scott Kirby, United’s CEO, explained several years ago: These game-changing technologies will significantly reduce our emissions, and measurably reduce the speed of climate change – because buying carbon offsets alone is just not enough. Perhaps most importantly, we’re not just doing it to meet our own sustainability goal; we’re doing it to drive the positive change our entire industry requires so that every airline can eventually join us and do the same. United has also invested in fully electric aircraft that can transport more passengers for longer distances. United-Airlines-electric-taxi United Airlines and Heart Aerospace ES-30 electric aircraft (Source: United Airlines) The airliner invested in electric plane startup Heart Aerospace in 2021, agreeing to buy up to 200 aircraft. Heart is developing a 19-seat electric airplane (ES-19) capable of flying up to 250 miles, due out by the end of the decade. It’s also developing a larger, 30-seat electric plane, the ES-30. United believes its investment will enable the company to fast-track the ES-19’s development to as early as 2026. https://electrek.co/2023/06/14/united-airlines-launch-first-electric-commuter-flights/ Beyond Automation: How AI Is Transforming Aviation Generative artificial intelligence tools will become far more useful when aerospace companies start integrating them with their own intellectual property. More than a century after the invention of the autopilot, aerospace engineers are still working to bring more automated processes into aircraft cockpits to enhance safety, increase efficiency, and reduce pilot workload. With the help of artificial intelligence (AI), autopilot technology has evolved from simple devices that maintain an aircraft’s altitude and heading to fully autonomous flight control systems capable of performing gate-to-gate operations without any human input. One way or another, almost every aerospace and defense company exhibiting at this year's Paris Air Show increasingly is looking to exploit the potential for AI to improve their aircraft and other systems. This ubiquitous and rapidly morphing technology sphere likely will show a high profile at several forward-looking events during the main show. They include the Paris Air Lab, which concentrates on ensuring aviation's sustainable future, and the Avion de Métiers sessions, meant to lure young technologists into an industry that stands to learn much about AI from other sectors, such as automotive manufacturing. In May, EASA released its new AI Roadmap 2.0, which is intended to advance "the human-centric approach to integrating artificial intelligence in aviation. The updated document incorporates progress achieved in the field since the publication of the air safety agency's first roadmap was published in February 2020, drawing on AI use cases involving aerospace companies, research centers, and academics. According to EASA, the new roadmap, "provides a comprehensive plan for the safe and trustworthy integration of AIN in aviation, with a focus on safety, security, AI assurance, human factors and ethical considerations." Last month the organization also published a new report on research it commissioned into machine learning application approval, which highlights approaches to evaluating and certifying AI-based systems. But AI isn’t only changing the way airplanes fly—it’s transforming nearly every aspect of aviation on the ground, too. As AI and machine-learning technology have matured in recent years, the aviation industry has explored ways to capitalize on it by making processes more efficient and often safer. For example, aircraft manufacturers and service technicians can use AI software and robots, including language learning models like ChatGPT, to streamline assembly and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) processes. Airlines and other operators can also use AI for fleet optimization, flight planning, and ground operations. Engineers developing aircraft can use AI tools to facilitate and speed up the design and certification of products before they even hit the market. AI isn’t just the way of the future. The aviation industry already has used at least some primitive form of AI technology for years, particularly for manufacturing and MRO. Traditional AI relies on human programmers to define rules and algorithms for pattern-matching and decision-making processes, and it can analyze large datasets much faster than humans. For example, MRO providers might use AI to analyze data from the various sensors onboard an aircraft to predict potential maintenance needs before they arise. GENERATIVE AI IS CHANGING THE GAME Although the aerospace industry already widely uses AI for various applications, it has only just begun to make an impact. In the coming years, new applications will begin to emerge as companies find ways to take advantage of generative AI—models like ChatGPT that use machine learning and deep neural networks to generate outputs not predefined by human programmers. “AI is already helping both manufacturing and repair and maintenance users to work with robots much better,” Rishi Ranjan, founder and CEO of GridRaster, told AIN. GridRaster is a software company that specializes in “extended reality” technologies, like augmented reality and virtual reality, that employ AI and spatial mapping software. It provides such tools for the aerospace and automotive industries and works with several top U.S. defense contractors. According to Ranjan, the U.S. Department of Defense and its top contractors already use traditional AI tools, but generative AI has the potential to make a much bigger impact on defense applications, as well as on the wider aviation industry. “We strongly believe that generative AI will really start helping scale these things to the much bigger aerospace industry in the next two to 10 years,” he said. ChatGPT and other language-learning AI models like it generally are adept at disseminating an astronomical amount of information to yield relevant and—mostly—accurate output almost instantly. It can tell one how to build and certify an airplane, provide tips for improving the aerodynamics of an airframe, and even generate maintenance schedules for specific aircraft. But the greatest value of generative AI models like ChatGPT will come when aerospace companies begin to verticalize the technology, integrating it with their own intellectual property for internal use, Ranjan said. While ChatGPT and other generative AI models can access all the information publicly available on the internet, they don’t have access to companies’ valuable, private intellectual property. Giving AI access to that highly protected information would open up a world of new use cases for AI across the industry. “For the real use, what will happen is that companies will have to pay for an AI model like ChatGPT and start training it—whether ChatGPT enables that or someone will come up with a solution—so that you can take this massively large learning model and now start training it with proprietary data,” Ranjan said. “That will be true for pretty much every enterprise where IT is very important.” AI MAKES FASTER, BETTER DIGITAL TWINS While ChatGPT is a language-learning model that only outputs text, generative AI can also create images and 3D models. In aerospace, that can be particularly useful for generating digital twins. Aircraft developers and MRO providers alike nowadays often rely on sophisticated virtual models known as digital twins to simulate products, like aircraft and their various subsystems, in a digital environment. Engineers can leverage digital twins to speed product development timelines by reducing the need to physically build and test things, thereby minimizing costs. MRO technicians use digital twins for predictive maintenance and to detect anomalies by comparing real-world sensor data to the data generated by digital twins. While digital twins can help to save time and resources, they’re also expensive and time-consuming to create. But generative AI will soon make the process of building digital twins much faster. “Traditional AI is still very manual, and a digital twin is an extremely manual process to build,” Ranjan said. “Large AI models like ChatGPT, once you can verticalize these for the aerospace industry, can remove a lot of that manual work. They can look at text data and image data and start helping you create a digital twin for these automatically.” According to Ranjan, generative AI will soon allow companies to build digital twins for just a small fraction of what it costs today. For every $1 spent on building a digital twin with traditional methods, “in another three to four years you're looking at like 10 cents,” he said. “In another 10 years, it might be one cent. “Now these expensive solutions will start getting into the hands of more users,” Ranjan added, noting that he expects just about every aerospace company to be using some form of internal generative AI technology within two to three years. WILL AI TAKE OUR JOBS? As with just about any other industry, the impact that AI will have on the job market is not yet clear. Robots have already taken over some tasks that humans originally performed in the aerospace industry, and new autonomous airplanes will reduce the demand for commercial pilots. However, AI has the potential to create jobs that didn’t exist before. Those new roles might involve maintaining AI systems for both aircraft and ground operations, developing algorithms, and ensuring that AI gets used ethically and responsibly. According to Ranjan, aircraft manufacturers and technicians don’t need to worry about robots taking their jobs. Rather, he believes that AI will change the way they work. “The human in the loop is always going to be there,” he said. That’s because AI, while good at pattern recognition and making predictions, will never improve on human perception, he explained. “If you want the best efficiency in aerospace, because of the high [amount of] intellectual property and very large knowledge base that is needed to operate these things, it will always be a complementary relationship” between machines and human staff," he said. https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aerospace/2023-06-14/beyond-automation-how-ai-transforming-aviation Curt Lewis